Ukraine and EU wheat may benefit from ongoing Russia/Turkey dispute

By Vince Bamford

- Last updated on GMT

Tension could prompt Turkey to seek other wheat sources. Picture: iStock Kavram
Tension could prompt Turkey to seek other wheat sources. Picture: iStock Kavram

Related tags Black sea Turkey European union

Turkey, one of the largest importers of Russian wheat, may look to other sources as tensions between the two countries shows little sign of easing.

Industry observers have suggested growers in the EU and Ukraine could benefit from the dispute that included the destruction of a Russian military aircraft last month, and this week saw a Russian warship fire warning shots at a Turkish fishing boat in the Aegean Sea.

Although there are currently no restrictions on Russian exports to Turkey, grain shipments were said to have been put on hold for a short period following the shooting down of the Russian jet, and earlier this month the UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reported that Turkish dealers were not signing new trade deals.

Second largest importer

In addition to Russia, Turkey also imports wheat from Ukraine – which is priced roughly in line with Russia - and in lesser quantities from EU countries including Romania and Germany. Turkey is the second largest importer of Russia wheat, taking around 18% of its exports, behind Egypt, which takes around 30% [Mintec].

In light of recent tensions between the two nations, Turkey may turn to importing a greater quantity of wheat from Ukraine but there could also be an opportunity for EU wheat​,” wrote AHDB Market Intelligence analyst Millie Askew two weeks ago. “With EU wheat export commitments slightly sluggish and down on the same point last year, an opportunity to ship more to Turkey would be a good option for the EU​.”

Commodities analysts Mintec this week told BakeryandSnacks there was, as yet, no evidence that Turkish imports of Russian wheat had slowed, adding France could benefit should Turkey begin buying elsewhere.

Good production from Black Sea

France has had a good production year and consequently has high exportable stocks​,” said a Mintec spokeswoman. “The weak rouble/hryvnia and good production from the Black Sea region has made it difficult for French wheat to increase its exports out of its traditional markets​.”

With Turkish wheat imports accounting for less than 3% of global wheat trade, observers do not expect a potential change in Turkish sourcing to affect the wider market.

Given current over-supply from Russia and the EU,  as well as US and now Argentina, I am not sure there will be any impact aside from perhaps short-term difficulty for one or two operators who may have contracts in place​,” said one trader.

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1 comment

The Sunni-Shia maelstrom of religious intolerance

Posted by jake_leone,

The U.S. has officially stated that Turkey took oil from ISIS.

Why isn't Erdogan suing the United States for defamation?

Why is Erdogan still in power, he said he would leave if there was any truth to the allegation?

Turkey has jailed reporters for reporting (indeed filming) Turkey sending heavy armaments to ISIS.

Turkey has sent troops into Iraq, that the Iraqi government considers to be invaders, not helpers. Indeed, those troops (given the pattern of Turkey so far) are likely there to just support Turkey-friendly rebels (ISIS is one of them).

Erdogan like all the Sunni muslims in the levant don't like, don't trust, any other religious group. The result has been sectarian violence on a scale which we in the west simply cannot comprehend.

The first amendment to the U.S.Constitution states (paraphrased) that the government shall not favor any religion or prevent the free excersize of religion. That first amendment stopped the U.S. from becoming an Iraq. Because the moment one religious groups achieves a majority, they would have used that majority to favor their religion, except in the U.S. the Constitution prevented that.

This pattern of religious discrimination leads all kinds of problems, when one religious group starts to feel oppressed. The oppressed, as a general rule, form militias (hey we did in 1776). Except that in countries without religious freedom and tolerance the militias become the arm of religious violence.

First there has to be religious freedom and tolerance, then the violence can end. Until that occurs, the violence will continue, that is the salafist way. They are still fighting a 1400 year old war in Iraq between Sunnis and Shias. Until there is officially and enforced religious freedom in the middle east, the middle east will never be at peace. If you don't believe that, then you are ignoring 1400 years of history.

Sunnis and Shias are fighting in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, in Yemen. The war between Sunnis and Shias has not ended for 1400 years.

Erdogan shot that jet down, because the Russians bombed the heck out of ISIS oil convoys that were making his family rich at the expense of the west. As far as Sunnis are concerned, ISIS is a friendly ally, keeping the Kurds at bay, keeping Iran out of northern Iraq, keeping the Iraqi government busy, keeping the Syrian government in check.

It's all part of a sick chess game, perpetrated by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, that is going to blow up in their face. Because it is not based upon democracy (that is just a buzz word used to sell the war to the western countries), it is in fact based upon religious intolerance, that same intolerance that has caused the Sunni Shia maelstrom for the last 1400 years.

Turkey is taking Nato, Europe, and the United States for an expensive marriage ride. And we need to divorce Turkey forth-with. If Obama can't see that it is because he is an idiot or under the sick influence of the idiot Neo-cons at the state department. Turkey is the new Pakistan, terrorist harboring country, into which we have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in aide.

We just agreed to give Turkey 3 billion dollars to help them close their border. Come on!?, Turkey had no problem shooting down that modern jet, with all of our previous military aide, Turkey can secure its border. Just recall those 5000 Turkish troops, that were just sent into Iraq, and deploy them on the border.

As far as Turkey is concerned, Turkey didn't join NATO, NATO married Turkey, and NATO is the woman (woman given instead of a more appropriate word).

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