Farmers organization Copa-Cogeca has forecast EU soft wheat production to increase 3.7% on last years levels by the 2013/14 marketing year, but worries that weather may impact yields.
The organization released its EU-27 cereals estimates last week, where it predicted the rise.
However, it warns there are concerns over lack of seed availability because poor weather conditions during the sowing period is likely to “have a serious impact on crop yield”.
Chairman of Copa-Cogeca cereals working party Max Schulman, said: “This implies that a significant percentage of the crops will have to be re-sown. EU farmers also expect lower yield potentials due to the winter kill this year and the lack of available certified seed in Spring varieties.”
EU-27 soft wheat production is expected to climb from 122.4m tons in 2012/3 to 127m tons in 2013/14.
“Total wheat production is expected to increase by 3.3% . For the first time, the area under barley is set to rise by 1% but due to low expectations on yield potential, production would be limited to 53.7 mt. A rise of 1.9% in total EU-27 grain production is foreseen from 273 mt in 2012/3 to 278.5 mt in 2013/4,” said Schulman.
FAO and price impact
A recent report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said that global wheat production for 2013 would rise to 690m tons, driven by a strong EU harvest and favourable weather conditions.
Rabobank recently forecast lower wheat prices for the next few quarters of 2013 due to lower wheat demand.
It is predicting CBOT wheat prices will fall to $675/bu by Q4, down from $846/bu in Q4 2012.
Matif wheat prices are also expected to fall from €264 per ton in Q4 2012 to €197 per ton in Q4 2013.