The cost of Brazil nuts has shot up over the past twelve months as diminishing supply struggles to meet demand. But what’s causing the shortage and how long will it last?
Why is there a Brazil nut shortage?
Poor growing conditions in the Amazon regions of Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru, where Brazil nuts are predominantly harvested, has resulted in a steep drop in stocks.
“The 2024/2025 Brazil nut crop has been significantly smaller than in previous years, primarily due to extreme weather conditions linked to climate change,” says Ralitsa Videnova, market research analyst at insights firm Vesper.
What is an extreme weather event?
An extreme weather event is the occurrence of weather which is unusual for a particular place or time of year. It will include unusual characteristics in terms of magnitude, location, timing and extent.
The region experienced an unusually dry season, driven by the El Niño phenomenon, (August 2023 – May 2024), resulting in severe droughts and persistently high temperatures, critically disrupting fruit development and yield.
And this isn’t unusual - far from it. Brazil nuts have joined a long list of commodities currently under threat from climatic changes. From cocoa to coffee, sugar to corn, shortages have hit sectors across the food and beverage industry, impacting supply and price. In fact, ingredients availability across the food and beverage industry has been cause for concern in recent months, as shortages and rising commodity prices dominate the headlines.
Moreover, suppliers and manufacturers have the added challenge of political instability in the region.
“Rising political unrest in Bolivia, partly triggered by the emergence of new political figures ahead of upcoming elections, has led to protests, roadblocks, and even regional lockdowns,” says Vesper’s Videnova. “These conditions have created substantial logistical bottlenecks, hindering the movement of goods from remote forest regions to processing and export facilities, further tightening global supply.”
How is this affecting food and beverage?
The Brazil nut shortage has not yet severely impacted the food and beverage industry. However, this is only because most buyers have already covered their needs for the current season.
It’s a different story for the on the spot market, where supply is tight, and prices are high.
With no significant new volumes expected before the next harvest, availability will continue to shrink
Ralista Videnova, Vesper
But while spot prices remain high, sellers at origin are starting to lower them in an effort to offload remaining stock before the next harvest (expected between December 2025 and March 2026). That’s when things could get really tricky for manufacturers, as they seek to secure supplies amidst diminishing availability and ever-increasing global demand.
“With no significant new volumes expected before the next harvest, availability will continue to shrink,” says Vesper’s Videnova. “Prices at origin may stay soft for now, but as inventories run low, the market could tighten quickly, leading to renewed price pressure and stronger competition for the remaining supply.”
And that competition is rising, as consumer interest in Brazil nuts and products containing Brazil nuts, grows. In fact, such is their popularity, the global market value now sits at $1.2bn (€1bn) with a projected CAGR of 5% (Regional Trends Analysis Firm).
Demand for Brazil nuts rising
An estimated 27,500 tonnes of Brazil nuts are consumed worldwide every year (NutFruit, part of the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council, INC).
“The Brazil nut market has been experiencing significant growth, due to increasing awareness of their health benefits, and their diverse applications across various industries,” says a spokesperson for Regional Trends Analysis Firm.
Increased interest in plant-based foods has also fuelled a rise in consumption as consumers seek animal-free protein sources.
All this means the ongoing shortages will be cause for concern to both manufacturers and consumers. So, how long will it last?
How long will the Brazil nut shortage last?
According to a recent report by Embrapa (The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation), researchers expect the 2025–2026 Brazil nut harvest to show signs of recovery.
“There are early signs that the shortage may not be long-lasting,” says Vesper’s Videnova.
Trees often respond to previous stress, such as drought, with increased flowering and fruiting in the following season. In addition, unused nutrient reserves in the trees and soil from the poor 2024–2025 harvest could help boost the next yield.
“While this recovery depends on more favourable weather conditions, the outlook for the next crop is cautiously optimistic,” says Videnova.
