Debunking snacking as we know it

What Europe’s €302bn snack market reveals

• Dairy drinks, fresh foods and frozen bites are competing with traditional snacks to accompany or replace meals.
• Healthier formulations are becoming an expectation, making nutritional claims alone harder to use as a selling point.
• Manufacturers can test new portions, packaging and retail placements before investing in another recipe.

The snack industry has built its growth strategies around some familiar assumptions: snacks fill the gaps between meals, healthier versions will unlock more sales and innovation starts with the recipe. Consumers are increasingly challenging all three, choosing yoghurt drinks, cottage cheese, sushi and frozen bites for occasions that manufacturers once expected crisps, biscuits and bars to own.

Ananda Roy, who leads Circana’s consumer packaged goods insights across EMEA, argues that manufacturers need to reconsider what they count as a snack before deciding where to invest. “Consumers are demonstrating that they are increasingly using categories that are not traditionally associated with traditional snacking,” he says. “Consumers are voting with their money and buying these extended snacking categories.”

Circana’s European Snack Unwrap analysis puts the traditional core snack market at €187bn across the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. Including extended snacking categories takes that figure to €302bn, based on point-of-sale data for the year to 26 April 2026.

The additional €115bn represents a wider market definition rather than an equivalent increase in spending. A manufacturer could be holding its own against rival biscuits or bars while losing purchases to foods it doesn’t even include in its competitive analysis.

Snacks belong between meals? Consumers have other ideas

Circana’s expanded analysis follows consumers across categories, from yoghurt-based protein drinks and smoothies to speciality breads, fresh sushi and frozen gyoza. Products with very different ingredients, storage requirements and preparation methods can compete for the same purchase.

“The opportunity to widen the repertoire of snacking has become a very real opportunity for growth,” says Roy.

Some of that competition reaches directly into breakfast, lunch and dinner, where consumers are using smaller products to assemble or replace a conventional meal.

“Fundamentally, we must understand that snacking is truly becoming the fourth meal,” he says. “At a time when snacking has traditionally been between meals, what we’re finding is consumers are replacing a meal in some cases.”

He describes foodservice customers ordering two starters, or a starter and dessert, while skipping the main course. Breakfast is changing, too, with on-the-go products, meat snacks and dairy options entering the mix.

A breakfast bar therefore needs to compete against more than another bar. Manufacturers need to understand whether consumers would otherwise buy a yoghurt drink, choose a savoury bake or skip breakfast, and whether their product delivers enough satisfaction at an acceptable price.

Roy argues that these changes also help explain why established category figures can look uninspiring despite continued interest in snacking. Pandemic demand created an unusually high starting point against which to judge subsequent performance.

“There was a significant volume uplift during the pandemic,” he says. “That was not a sustainable outlook. You can’t expect that significant growth to continue.”

He describes post-pandemic volume growth as modest, around 0.5%–1%, while cautioning manufacturers against mistaking weak performance in familiar formats for an absence of demand elsewhere. Businesses tracking only their existing category could miss consumers buying different foods for the occasions they previously served.

Healthier products won’t guarantee healthier sales

Manufacturers hoping nutritional improvements will deliver their next growth surge face another challenge: competitors have already been doing much the same work.

“Making existing snack categories healthier has been something that’s been going on for the last three years. It’s nothing new,” says Roy. “The industry has already reacted, both the retailers through their private labels, but also the mainstream brand manufacturers have already created healthier options.”

His argument concerns differentiation rather than the value of nutrition itself. Lower sugar, fat and salt, recognisable ingredients and traceability can help a product secure consideration but become harder to sell as distinctive benefits when shoppers find similar promises across the shelf.

“Healthier options are becoming table stakes in your portfolio,” he says.

Circana’s earlier European analysis shows that health-associated categories were attracting buyers, with cereals and breakfast bars, nuts, yoghurt and cheese all recording unit growth in 2024 while overall snack units held steady. Those results show demand growing in categories associated with health, although they don’t establish that nutritional claims alone drove the purchases.

A protein-enriched biscuit still needs to taste good and justify its price. Positioning it for breakfast also requires evidence that consumers find the portion and eating experience appropriate for that occasion, while retaining the enjoyment that encourages them to buy again.

“Consumers are looking for indulgence,” says Roy. “They’re looking for something that brightens up the day.”

Manufacturers also need to distinguish between different nutritional expectations. Roy describes younger shoppers experimenting with beverages as snacks, while older consumers show interest in a wider combination of benefits.

“In the older age groups, so over the age of 55, you are seeing functional snacks that have balanced nutrition,” he says. “So not only high protein, but also high fibre and other nutrients.”

Processing claims require similar care. Roy expects less heavily processed products to become more prominent but cautions against treating a shorter ingredient list as proof of better nutrition.

“Just because they have fewer ingredients or they’re not processed as much doesn’t mean that they are healthier,” he says.

Your next launch might not need a new recipe

A producer with limited funds could gain more from understanding where an existing product fits than from developing another variant. Roy suggests examining breakfast, exercise, desk-based eating and gaming, then considering whether the format, portion and distribution suit those activities.

“A lot of the manufacturers focus, they almost fixate on product innovation,” he says.

“Snacking during gaming, for example, you would think it’s quite a niche activity, but a lot of people are snacking at their desk when they’re working. They’re snacking while gaming. They’re snacking before and after exercise.”

That could mean giving an existing bakery product more portable packaging to compete for breakfast or changing a savoury snack’s pack size to suit a lunch purchase. Both give manufacturers something specific to test before committing funds to a new formulation.

“On-the-go convenience is becoming a big area for growth,” says Roy. “Looking at strategic channels, looking at new usage occasions are just a couple of examples of where brand manufacturers can innovate beyond product innovation.”

Retailers are experimenting with ‘aisle hopping’, placing dairy-based beverages around functional drinks and displaying snacks alongside products that suggest different uses. Roy also describes meal deals moving beyond familiar combinations, encouraging shoppers to reconsider which foods can accompany or substitute for lunch.

Suppliers need to explain how their product earns a place in those purchases, particularly as retailers have alternatives to waiting for established brands.

“They have accelerator programmes where they work with small or mid-sized manufacturers to create interesting new snack items,” says Roy. “They are competing with the big brands by giving small and mid-sized manufacturers distribution.”

That access may initially concentrate on urban locations or smaller stores but gives emerging suppliers a foothold while helping retailers build distinctive ranges.

“It’s not only the brand manufacturers that are setting the benchmark, it is also retailers,” he says. “They’re not waiting on brands to innovate in the space.”

Getting onto the shelf is only the start. Roy identifies price, promotion and distribution as essential to attracting buyers and encouraging repeat purchase, while local eating habits influence when consumers consider a product appropriate. A manufacturer targeting breakfast, for example, needs to understand what shoppers already buy and why they’d switch from their usual drink, dairy pot or savoury option.

Without a convincing reason to switch, another flavour or nutrient claim risks giving existing buyers more choice without giving anyone else a reason to buy.