Key takeaways:
- GLP-1s are not driving a mass exit from food categories, but reshaping how, when and how much people eat.
- Smaller portions and more frequent eating occasions are changing consumption patterns, not eliminating them.
- Economic pressure remains a bigger driver of reduced food spending than GLP-1 use, despite the headlines.
GLP-1s have been everywhere – headlines, earnings calls, trend reports. Much of the coverage has leaned heavily in one direction: people will eat less and certain categories will take the hit.
But new insight from the American Bakers Association (ABA), presented by Anne-Marie Roerink, president of Lakeland-based market research firm 210 Analytics, and Dr Rachael Degurse, CEO of Pearl Primary Care, suggests the industry may be asking the wrong question. Speaking at the recent ABA Convention in Colorado Springs, both made it clear that the real shift isn’t about eating less – it’s about eating differently.
“We all have the same customer and that is the consumer,” said Roerink, pointing to the growing overlap between medical intervention and everyday food choices. Even with appetite suppression, behaviour rarely moves in a straight line. People don’t simply stop eating – they adjust.
Right now, around 13.3% of US consumers are using GLP-1 medications, according to the ABA’s 2026 Bakery Playbook, and with oral formats expected to accelerate uptake, that share is likely to climb. In fact, economic futurist Andy Busch told attendees adoption could reach around 21% by 2030, as awareness grows, access improves and use becomes more socially accepted. That scale has triggered concern, but the behavioural picture is more grounded than some of the headlines suggest.
Rather than stepping away from entire categories, GLP-1 users are adjusting how, when and why they eat. Engagement remains, but it looks different.
“It’s not a demand disruption story,” said Roerink. “It’s a shaping of baked good engagement.”
Appetite may be reduced, but food still plays its usual roles. Routine, comfort, celebration haven’t gone anywhere. So yes, the change is real but it’s just not as simple as ‘less’.
From smaller appetites to tighter nutrition
Dr Degurse, a family physician, said the drugs may feel new in the mainstream, but they’ve been in use for decades. “These medications feel new but they’ve actually been around since the 90s,” she noted.
Their mechanism is threefold: slowing gastric emptying so food stays in the stomach longer, regulating appetite hormones to reduce impulse eating and improving insulin control. The result is a marked reduction in hunger, alongside what clinicians describe as a drop in ‘food noise’ – the constant mental preoccupation with eating.
Eating patterns change quickly: portions shrink and some meals are skipped without much thought. What doesn’t change is nutritional need.
“Protein intake is very important,” said Dr Degurse, who typically advises one and one-and-a-half grams per kilogramme of ideal body weight (60g-80g of protein) per day. That becomes harder to achieve when a full portion suddenly feels like too much. “Most of the time people are not able to eat a large chicken breast or a piece of steak – so strategies like protein pancakes or protein muffins can be really helpful.”
Fibre presents a similar gap. Recommended intake sits at around 25g-38g per day, yet most consumers fall well short (10g-12g). That shortfall becomes more obvious as intake drops. “Baked goods are a fantastic way for people to increase their fibre intake,” she said, particularly through multigrain or fortified formats.
At the same time, fat intake may need to be reduced to avoid exacerbating side effects such as nausea, bloating or heartburn, while smaller, more frequent meals – often up to six per day – are encouraged to manage tolerance. Some patients also experience fatigue if they aren’t eating enough overall, underlining the importance of nutrient density.
“On these medications, there are not really any foods that you have to avoid,” Dr Degurse added. “You certainly don’t need to be counting calories or avoiding foods that you enjoy eating.”
“These medications are here to stay,” Degurse added, noting that around 40 million Americans are already using them. While the motivation is chronic weight management for 56% of users, others turn to GLP-1s for diabetes, metabolic health, cardiovascular risk and a growing list of related conditions. They’re now being explored for a wide range of indications, including cardiovascular health, fatty liver disease, Alzheimer’s risk reduction and even addiction-related behaviours such as alcoholism and impulse control disorders.
What people say vs what they do
If the clinical picture points to smaller appetites, the consumer data adds another layer. ABA’s research is based on a March 2026 survey of 1,529 consumers, with an oversample of GLP-1 users, alongside Circana sales data. What emerges is a consumer who is not only growing in number but also influence, increasingly shaping grocery decision-making.
The typical GLP-1 consumer, she explained, is often an older millennial female with children in the household – someone juggling career, family and a high-pressure lifestyle. These are also frequently higher-income households, which tend to spend more on food overall.
Much of the narrative so far has assumed these consumers would pull back from categories like bakery and confectionery. “What we are seeing is quite the opposite,” said Roerink. “These households are actually higher engaged with the baked goods category.”
They are still buying, still eating and in some cases doing so more often. The difference is in how.
Smaller, individually portioned products fit more easily into a day made up of lighter eating occasions. Many of those additional eating moments come from eating little and often – spreading consumption across the day rather than concentrating it into three meals.
Frequency data backs that up. Across meal-related items, snacks and treats, GLP-1 users often report eating more frequently, just in smaller amounts. Many are still consuming across categories four to seven days a week.
There are shifts within that pattern. Higher-protein approaches show up more often. Lower-carb thinking remains. Sugar-free options get more attention. But stepping away entirely? That’s not what the data shows. Around 90% of both GLP-1 users and non-users still see treats as a legitimate reward or escape.
“It’s incredibly important to make room for your occasional treat or dessert to celebrate special occasions,” said Roerink.
Consumption shifts are also not one-directional. Around 36% say they’re eating less, a similar share say more and the rest report no real change. Among those eating less, only 29% singled out baked goods as something they were actively cutting back on.
So, looking closer, GLP-1 use is only part of the story. Broader health goals, general diet changes and switching to alternatives all come into play. It’s not elimination that the industry should be looking at, noted Roerink, “it’s reshaping of the diet.”
The maths behind the headlines
Much of the noise around GLP-1s comes from headline numbers, but a closer look at the data tells a different story.
Start with 13.3% of the population. Of those, about 36% say they are eating less. That drops the number to roughly 5%.
Then look at why. GLP-1 use is a factor, but rarely the only one – around two-thirds of those cutting back say it’s a contributing factor rather than the sole driver. Consumers also point to wider health concerns, interest in nutrition, budget pressures or switching to alternatives.
Factor that in and the number shrinks again. For sweet baked goods and desserts, the end result is about 3% of the population. “All of a sudden, when you do that math, it’s very different from those headlines,” said Roerink.
By contrast, economic pressures are having a far greater influence on consumption. In many cases, the impact of financial strain is two to three times larger than that of GLP-1 usage. Among lower-income households, where consumers may be struggling to make it to the next pay cheque, the effect is even more pronounced.
“The economy… has a much higher impact on what we are seeing in baked goods sales today,” she said.
This wider context is critical. Consumers under financial pressure are far more likely to cut back across the board, regardless of GLP-1 use.
A different kind of consumer shift
What emerges from both the clinical and consumer data isn’t a story of decline, but one of refinement. GLP-1 users are becoming more selective, more intentional and more focused on value – not just in price terms, but in what food delivers.
“There’s a big focus on what they consider real ingredients,” said Roerink. That can mean simpler formulations, recognisable components or just something that feels less processed.
There’s also more attention on what each item delivers. Protein, fibre and overall nutritional value carry more weight when portions are smaller.
At the same time, the emotional side of eating hasn’t gone away. Celebrations still matter. Treats still have a place. In some cases, people are more deliberate about those moments.
“Enjoy your holiday. Please eat your birthday cake,” said Dr Degurse. Some patients even adjust how often they take their medication around holidays or trips so they can be more relaxed about food.
Taste perception can also shift, although responses vary widely. Some consumers report that foods taste sweeter or saltier, while others notice little change. Dr Degurse suggested that what often disappears isn’t taste itself, but the impulse-driven craving tied to emotional eating, tied to that reduction in ‘food noise’.
This creates a more complex landscape for product developers and brand owners. Consumers are looking for foods that fit into smaller, more structured eating patterns while still delivering on enjoyment, quality and perceived health benefits. They’re not abandoning indulgence, but they are becoming more selective about when and how they engage with it.
And while GLP-1 fatigue may be setting in across headlines, the real story is only just beginning.
