Plant-based market decline: summary
- Market slowdown seen as temporary adjustment not long-term decline
- Forecasts predict strong plant-based meat CAGR growth through 2035
- Clean-label reformulation could drive renewed consumer interest
- Innovation in taste, texture, and processing improving product appeal significantly
- Hybrid meat and diversified plant-based categories supporting broader market resilience
With consumers losing interest in sustainability, strong distrust of ultra-processed food growing, and high protein offerings such as animal meat at the height of popularity, things are not looking good for the plant-based category. It’s official: plant-based is on the retreat.
Or is it? Some predict that plant-based food in general, and plant-based meat in particular, could have life in it yet.
Is plant-based really declining?
Several signs of plant-based’s decline have been clear for some time. Major brands such as Beyond Meat (now Beyond) have been consistently losing revenue and sales; plant-based outlets such as Leonardo DiCaprio-backed Neat Burger have closed down, and major chains such as McDonald’s have withdrawn veggie options.
But is all this really all a sign that the market is in decline? Market analytics company Market Research Future doesn’t think so.
“The recent slowdown observed in some regions should be viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than a long-term decline in demand for plant-based proteins”, says Rahul Gotadki, associate vice president for research at the company.
Far from predicting the sector’s demise, the company projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.56% for plant-based meat between 2025 and 2035.
The struggles of key market players such as Beyond Meat have been driven in part by increased competition, says Gotadki, especially from traditional food companies entering the ring.
With intense focus on R&D in lowering price and meeting consumer preferences, he suggests, the industry may have a brighter future than its present indicates.
The market is correcting itself following the initial surge of hype, says Nandini Roy Choudhury, principal consultant for food and beverage at analytics group Future Market Insights.
The early stages of plant-based “created expectations of very fast mainstream replacement of conventional meat, which was always ambitious. What is happening now is a transition from hype-led growth to a more mature, performance-driven phase.”
Brands that are succeeding are those with focus on taste and texture, with cleaner labels, and good pricing. Taste, texture, price and processing have all dissuaded consumers from embracing the category in the past.
Furthermore, market consolidation is already being seen in some areas – Brazilian meat giant JBS recently launched The Vegetarian Butcher Collective, which includes brands Vivera and the Vegetarian Butcher.
Consolidation, explains Choudhury, helps markets scale, reduces fragmentation and increases bargaining power. Companies pooling their resources and technical capabilities can avoid the “valley of death” that many start-ups reach when funding stalls and scaling becomes difficult.
Reformulation: Clean label
A key driver of scepticism in the plant-based meat sector has been its association with ultra-processing. Consumers are increasingly distrustful of the food sector and want short, clear ingredients lists – something which, in many cases, plant-based food doesn’t provide.
However, this decade may be defined by clean label innovation in the space, predicts Future Market Insights. This could, suggests Choudhury, boost appeal to consumers.
“If manufacturers can deliver strong taste and texture while simplifying formulations and improving nutritional credibility, they stand a much better chance of competing not only with earlier meat alternatives but also with conventional meat products. The opportunity lies in closing the trust gap as much as the sensory gap.”
As the market shifts towards more clean label options, pea protein is overtaking soy in many formulations.
Pea protein is currently the leading protein source, according to Future Market Insights, with a 35.6% share of the plant-based food market. The pea protein market is projected to have a CAGR of 8.4% between 2026 and 2030.
Pea protein is less controversial than soy, explains Choudhury. It has a more clean-label image, as well as being allergen-free.
Despite scepticism around ultra-processing, a significant portion of consumers still view plant-based meat as a healthier alternative to animal meats, according to Market Research Future’s Gotadki. This is due to lower saturated fat levels and the absence of cholesterol.
Reformulation: Taste and texture
Another area in which the sector is aiming to improve is taste and texture. For many consumers, taste and texture is as much a barrier to adoption as processing.
As production improves, plant-based manufacturers are getting better at developing the taste and texture that consumers want, according to Market Research Future’s Gotadki.
“Innovations in ingredient development, texture, flavour, and processing techniques are improving product quality, making plant-based meats more appealing to a broader audience.”
As well as industrial techniques such as extrusion cooking and 3D printing, the sector is working to improve taste using natural flavours in plant-based products, he explains, and flavour encapsulation is being used to help replicate a savoury, umami taste and even aroma.
Such innovation is likely to attract a broader range of flexitarian consumers.
IP activity has been flaring up of late in areas such as flavour systems, fat structuring, extrusion methods, fibre networks and mouthfeel enhancement, adds Future Market Insights’ Choudhury. “Taste and texture remain the decisive battleground for the category.”
While patents in plant-based have declined from their peak, they’re still far higher than in any year before 2020.
Companies that produce products with a strong taste profile are more likely to drive repeat purchases. This also gives them a competitive advantage.
Could price parity be reached?
Price parity with animal proteins may be in sight, projects Future Market Insights. How could the plant-based sector achieve this?
The improvement of ingredient economics, supply chain localisation, formulation efficiency and scaling of processing capacity may lead the sector to price parity, suggests Choudhury.
“As production volumes rise and manufacturers optimise formulations, the cost gap can narrow.”
Furthermore, retailers are increasingly willing to support private label and mainstream merchandising, which can lower price points.
However, price parity is unlikely to increase evenly across all products at once, she stresses.
The rise of hybrid meat
Hybrid meat has not yet made it big, but it is already showing strong potential. For retailers, they can be a way of cutting costs, as animal meat is currently expensive. For consumers, hybrids provide a meatier texture than wholly plant-based meat while still having an edge over traditional meat when it comes to sustainability.
Hybrid meat could provide competition to plant-based, suggests Future Market Insights’ Choudhury, because they offer a more familiar sensory profile. They may attract a wider mainstream audience because of this.
“However, hybrid formats may also help normalise alternative proteins and support a more gradual shift in eating habits.”
Hybrid is seen by many as a way of getting consumers on board with plant-based eating; helping them eat sustainably without a sacrifice as significant as eating an entirely plant-based product.
Plant-based outside of meat
Many of the prophecies about the doom of plant-based come from an overwhelming focus on meat, suggests Future Market Insights’ Choudhury.
The market continues to evolve, she suggests, outside of meat substitutes. Plant-based meat is “unlikely to be the only engine of growth going forward“.
Other growth areas may include plant-based dairy, ready meals, protein snacks, functional beverages, spreads, and ingredient-led nutrition products, which, she suggests, are showing stronger resilience due to the fact that they fit better into everyday consumption habits.
By focusing on plant-based meat, public commentary has overestimated the decline of plant-based as a whole.
“While some early plant-based meat brands have faced slower-than-expected momentum, the wider plant-based food market continues to evolve and expand, supported by product diversification, distribution gains, ingredient innovation, and a more pragmatic consumer adoption curve.”