In a world where nearly a third of all food produced is wasted – and bakery leads that volume – rethinking how we formulate baked goods is no longer optional.
The challenge isn’t just extending shelf life for the sake of it. It’s about doing so without compromising flavour, texture, clean label standards or the bottom line.
According to Matthew May, bakery lead at Kerry, the industry is entering a new era of ingredient innovation and predictive modelling that can fundamentally reshape how we approach freshness and food waste.
“We throw away 12 billion loaves of bread a year,” May told us at iba 2025 in Düsseldorf, a leading trade fair for the baking industry. “That’s a huge issue – morally, environmentally and financially. And the reasons are surprisingly consistent: the product goes mouldy, it goes stale or the flavour deteriorates. If we can solve for those, we’re not just saving loaves – we’re saving brands and consumer loyalty.”
Cutting development time with shelf life modelling
For product developers, tackling shelf life has traditionally meant cycles of trial and error. Formulate, wait for results, adjust and repeat. But Kerry is shifting that paradigm through a predictive modelling platform that simulates how a bakery product will perform under various shelf-life stressors without waiting for the real-time spoilage clock.
The model draws on microbiological data, in vitro testing and application validation. Input variables like pH, water activity, preservative system or fermentation approach and the tool forecasts mould resistance, texture degradation and flavour stability. “It’s not a crystal ball,” May clarified, “but it’s directionally very strong. It narrows your target before you begin physical trials, which saves a huge amount of time.
“It takes the guesswork out of reformulation,” he added. “You can plug in whether you’re using vinegar or calcium propionate, or adjusting pH and the model will predict how long your product will last. It’s not 100% precise, but it gets you directionally very close – much faster than waiting for real-time shelf life results.”
In a typical product development cycle, that could save months. “If your current product has a three-month shelf life and you make a change, you won’t know if it’s better or worse until three months later – unless you’ve got accelerated testing, which many don’t. With predictive modelling, you’re not flying blind. You get closer to the target before you start trials and that’s a huge efficiency gain.”
This type of virtual reformulation not only helps manufacturers respond more quickly to market demands but also reduces waste in development labs and allows more agile adaptation to supply chain pressures, especially relevant in today’s environment of shifting ingredient availability and cost volatility.
Texture, taste and clean label considerations
One of the key shifts May sees is the move away from single-point solutions. “Shelf life isn’t just about preventing mould. It’s about protecting the overall eating experience – texture, flavour and appearance – over time.”
To that end, Kerry is offering a more layered toolbox for bakers looking to meet both performance and clean label goals. Fermented wheat solutions are replacing synthetic mould inhibitors. Clean label enzymes are stepping in where emulsifiers once ruled, delivering softness and moisture retention in even high sugar baked goods like muffins. Flavour modulation systems are being deployed to mask oxidative off-notes or maintain sweetness and mouthfeel when reducing sugar or fat.
In a side-by-side tasting at iba, developers could sample brioche loaves aged for seven days: one using conventional emulsifiers; one using enzymes; and one with no shelf life-enhancing inputs. The difference in softness and resilience was clear, but perhaps more crucially, the enzyme-based sample also ticked the clean label box, offering developers a premium performance option without additional pack clutter.
“It’s not just about stopping spoilage,” said May. “It’s about protecting the whole sensory experience. If a brioche still feels soft and buttery on day seven and hasn’t picked up off-notes, the consumer eats it. If it’s dry or oxidised, they bin it and they probably don’t come back.”
Cocoa is another case study in this more nuanced approach. With prices skyrocketing and supply tightening, many bakers are being forced to reduce cocoa content. At iba, Kerry demonstrated real-world examples of how it’s approaching that complexity. Visitors sampled chocolate muffins made with 50% less cocoa but bolstered with flavour modulation to deliver the same rich taste. “We’re using extracts, fermentation, and reaction flavours to recreate cocoa notes,” May explained. “That way, even if the cocoa itself is reduced, the consumer still gets the full experience.”
Another example was a soft brioche made without palm oil or emulsifiers, but with a clean label enzyme system. “We’re not saying one solution is better than another - we’re offering choice,” May said. “Some customers want to stay with palm, others want palm-free. Some want emulsifiers, others need clean label. We help them get the performance they need, whichever path they choose.”
Building the bakery of 2030
Looking forward, May is adamant the next wave of innovation won’t be driven by any one stakeholder alone. “To solve for sustainability, for resilience and for affordability, we have to collaborate. From ingredient producers to farmers to millers to bakers – we all have a role.”
That’s already in motion through initiatives like the Sustainable Wheat Initiative, which is bringing together stakeholders across the value chain to ensure changes are both impactful and equitable.
Cutting wheat’s carbon footprint
The Sustainable Wheat Initiative, led by AIBI and supported by top baking company CEOs, aims to cut the carbon footprint of wheat and wheat flour by 30% by 2030. As the bakery industry’s most essential ingredient, wheat presents a major opportunity for meaningful climate action.
The initiative takes a collaborative supply chain approach, uniting stakeholders from farming through to finished goods. To kickstart the coalition, AIBI is hosting a symposium on 4-5 June in Utrecht, Netherlands, bringing together over 150 participants, including bakery manufacturers, millers, cooperatives, ingredient and equipment suppliers, and downstream partners.
The goal is to align on actionable strategies and foster partnerships that can drive measurable change across the industry. With increasing pressure to decarbonise, the initiative provides a shared platform to tackle sustainability challenges together.
Kerry is also helping bakers take the long view with its FutureLens scenario-planning platform. Developed by its insights team and external futurists, the tool outlines possible future states of regulation, climate, consumer behaviour and supply chain structure – giving product developers a strategic edge.
“It helps customers think beyond the next quarter. What happens if sugar reduction becomes mandatory? What if certain preservatives are banned? What if climate pressures disrupt ingredient availability? FutureLens gives you scenarios to plan against so you’re not caught off guard,” May noted. Especially as clean label, premium nutrition and price accessibility increasingly pull in different directions.
That tension – between shelf life and simplicity, between indulgence and responsibility – is what the modern bakery must navigate. But with the right tools, the right partners and a mindset focused on systems rather than single fixes, there’s a way forward.
As May put it, “If we can make a muffin that’s still moist on day 40, the consumer eats it. They don’t toss it. That’s where the real value lies – not just in food preservation, but in trust, in repeat purchase and in building a more sustainable future for bakery.”
That future won’t be built with preservatives alone. Shelf life has become a system-wide challenge and a strategic opportunity.
For today’s bakery developers, tools like predictive modelling, adaptable ingredient systems and cross-industry collaboration are opening up smarter, faster ways to reduce waste, speed up reformulation and create products that hold up on shelf.
AI is stepping up when waste is unavoidable
While prevention is always the goal, food waste isn’t always avoidable - especially in fast-paced bakery and snack production. That’s where artificial intelligence is stepping in, giving manufacturers the tools to track, analyse and repurpose waste with greater precision than ever before.
One standout solution is Zest, an AI waste-monitoring platform that’s already helping global giants like Nestlé slash avoidable loss. In a recent pilot, Nestlé used Zest to cut edible waste by 87% in just two weeks - identifying surplus chocolate bars, broken products and near-expiry items that would previously have gone to landfill. The recovered food was instead redistributed, repurposed or reformulated, transforming cost into opportunity.
Other major players are following suit. PepsiCo has invested in AI to optimise ingredient sourcing and batch forecasting across its snack division, reducing overproduction and energy use. Danone has partnered with Microsoft to deploy AI across its global logistics network, helping reduce spoilage and streamline production. Unilever, too, is using AI to track ingredient performance in real time, allowing more accurate formulation adjustments and minimising production errors that lead to waste.
In bakery, AI is even guiding upcycling efforts. At London’s Silo, a zero-waste bakery and restaurant, AI-assisted fermentation is transforming surplus bread and grains into high-value ingredients like koji and miso, reducing compostable waste to under 1%.
With foodtech projected to reach $27.7 billion by 2029, AI isn’t just a tool for efficiency - it’s becoming an essential driver of sustainability in bakery and snacks.
