The post-crisis egg market explained:
- US raw liquid whole egg prices fell approximately 90% year on year in July 2026 as supplies recovered.
- Replacing eggs can require several ingredients and processing changes to reproduce their binding, aeration, emulsification and structural functions.
- Plant-based and precision-fermented alternatives remain relevant, but cheaper conventional eggs have made the commercial calculation considerably tougher.
What began as another avian influenza outbreak developed into an unprecedented global assault on poultry production. From 2021, H5N1 spread across continents, causing the loss of hundreds of millions of birds and disrupting food supplies, trade and pricing. In the US, where the outbreak reached commercial poultry in February 2022, the Department of Agriculture described the response as the country’s largest animal health emergency to date. The virus hasn’t disappeared, but its most severe impact on US egg supplies has eased as flocks have recovered and production has stabilised.
That recovery comes as separate Salmonella outbreaks expose another fault line in the egg supply chain. The UK is investigating 207 confirmed cases, including one death, potentially linked to imported eggs used mainly by catering and foodservice businesses, although the source hasn’t been confirmed and there’s no evidence that UK-produced eggs are affected. In the US, an ongoing multistate outbreak linked to shell eggs has caused 98 illnesses and 26 hospitalisations, prompting the recall of almost 1.6 million sets of dozen eggs. Neither incident has created the supply shock seen during HPAI or implicated the processed egg ingredients used by manufacturers, but they underline why biological and sourcing risks remain even as prices fall.
The HPAI crisis nevertheless gave food manufacturers every reason to reconsider their dependence on eggs. The destruction of infected flocks squeezed supplies of the liquid, frozen and dried ingredients used in cakes, biscuits, breads, sauces, fillings and prepared foods, while costs surged and contracts became harder to secure. Those conditions should’ve produced the perfect break-up, yet the American Egg Board (AEB) says it’s seen no evidence of a broad reduction in egg use or a permanent move away from the ingredient. Some businesses examined short-term alternatives, but the widespread reformulation that might have been expected from a crisis of this scale hasn’t happened.
US flocks and supplies have now recovered, reversing the financial pressure almost as dramatically as it emerged. Shell eggs have fallen sharply in price, while liquid whole egg used by industrial food manufacturers has recorded an even steeper percentage decline. The more revealing post-crisis story isn’t simply that eggs are affordable again, but that four years of disease, record prices and supply disruption still couldn’t loosen their grip on food formulation.
How a 90% price fall changed the calculation
“Interest in real egg ingredients remains strong as supply has improved and stabilised,” said Kate Karnas, director of Channel Marketing at the AEB. “While some manufacturers may have evaluated short-term risk-management solutions during the height of the disruption, reformulation is rarely simple and requires significant time, investment and testing. We don’t have data indicating a broad reduction or replacement of eggs in formulations, but like other agricultural ingredients, egg availability and pricing ebb and flow with market conditions.”
USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data shows Midwest Grade A Large shell eggs falling from $3.355 per dozen in July 2025 to $1.014 in July 2026 – a decline of approximately 70%.
Raw liquid whole egg, which is produced by breaking eggs, removing the shells and selling the contents by weight to manufacturers, fell by approximately 90% over the same period, from $1.531 to $0.148 per pound.
The two prices aren’t directly comparable because shell eggs are measured by the dozen and liquid egg by weight. The percentages reveal what happened in their respective markets: the cost of liquid whole egg used in industrial formulations fell substantially faster than that of wholesale shell eggs.
The reversal becomes even more dramatic when set against the peak of the shortage. Midwest Grade A Large eggs reached $8.185 per dozen in February 2025, when HPAI-related losses were severely constraining supply. By June 2026, that price had collapsed to $0.551 before rising to $1.014 in July, with more recent reports indicating another decline in August.
“The market has improved substantially from the supply-constrained environment of 2025,” said Karnas. “Pricing can still fluctuate with supply, demand and seasonal conditions, but current supply is plentiful and prices have stabilised. There is no better time for manufacturers to use real eggs.”
That conclusion reflects the AEB’s position, but the economics facing manufacturers have plainly changed. A company that considered reformulation when liquid whole egg cost $1.531 per pound is now weighing the same decision with the ingredient priced at less than one-tenth of that level.
Why replacing eggs can mean rebuilding the product
Although lower prices have weakened the immediate financial case for substitution, they don’t fully explain why manufacturers remained reliant on eggs throughout the crisis. The more stubborn obstacle appears once eggs are removed from the formulation.
“What makes real eggs particularly valuable to food manufacturers is their ability to perform multiple roles within formulation,” said Karnas. “Eggs can contribute structure, aeration, emulsification, binding, texture, colour, flavour and nutrition all in one familiar ingredient.
“Replacing egg therefore often means replacing an entire functional system, potentially requiring multiple ingredients and processing adjustments to achieve comparable product quality. That total value remains important regardless of short-term fluctuations in supply.”
A manufacturer might reproduce eggs’ binding function, only to find the reformulated product has lost volume, moisture or stability. Correcting those defects can require additional ingredients, changes to mixing and baking, further factory trials and another round of sensory and shelf-life testing. Comparing the price of egg with a single substitute consequently captures only part of the cost.
AEB chef Nelson Serrano-Bahri said the challenge becomes particularly acute in bakery products where eggs perform several functions simultaneously.
“Consider an angel food, sponge or chiffon cake, meringue or macaron, or a custard-style filling,” he said. “Depending on the application, egg may aerate the product, stabilise a foam, emulsify fat and water, bind moisture and then coagulate during baking to create the final structure, all while contributing colour, richness, flavour and mouthfeel.
“That multifunctionality is what makes replacement difficult. A formulator may be able to replace one individual function, but then need another ingredient to replace the next, and another to replace the next. What appears to be a simple substitution can quickly become an entirely new system.”
Depending on the application, manufacturers can draw on starches, gums and hydrocolloids for binding and moisture retention; soy, pea or mung bean proteins for structure; lecithins and other emulsifiers; or aquafaba, the liquid from cooked pulses, for foaming. These tools can work well, but several may be required to recreate the functions previously supplied by eggs alone.
AEB technical resources identify emulsification and foaming among the most difficult egg functions to reproduce. Reducing eggs can also demand changes to mixing time, temperature and baking conditions, with potential consequences for structure, volume, texture and shelf life.
“That is why I would focus less on whether an alternative can technically ‘replace egg’ in a particular application, and more on whether the total formulation can reproduce the eating experience, product quality and manufacturing performance of the original,” said Serrano-Bahri.
Egg alternatives face a much tougher post-crisis market
Egg alternatives now extend well beyond traditional starch-based replacers. Plant-derived systems use ingredients including pulse proteins, aquafaba, vegetable oils, fibres, gums and emulsifiers to reproduce particular properties of whole eggs or egg whites. Precision fermentation takes a different route by programming microorganisms to produce ovalbumin – the main protein in egg white responsible for much of its foaming, binding and gelling performance.
The technology is moving beyond laboratory promise. The EVERY Company is expanding production of its precision-fermented ovalbumin ingredient OvoPro, which is designed for baked goods, bars, snacks, confectionery and pasta. In June, the company announced it was quadrupling capacity after annual orders secured during the first four months of 2026 reportedly reached 550% of its total 2025 order volume. Onego Bio is also developing Bioalbumen, a precision-fermented egg white protein aimed at bakery, snacks, confectionery, beverages and sauces.
This momentum suggests the egg crisis did accelerate demand for alternative supply, even if it didn’t produce a mass withdrawal from conventional eggs. Falling prices have nevertheless made the commercial contest considerably harder because alternatives must now offer more than protection from scarcity and volatility.
“Lower conventional egg prices can make real eggs more economically attractive, but precision-fermented and plant-based alternative products are not an apples-to-apples comparison to real eggs,” said Karnas. “Egg alternatives are generally developed to meet specific formulation or consumer objectives, such as targeted functional benefits, vegan positioning or allergen management.
“These products are not universally one-for-one replacements for real eggs across applications, particularly given the multiple functional, sensory and nutritional roles eggs can perform in formulation. Manufacturers must ultimately evaluate the whole equation when selecting ingredients, including cost, functionality, taste and texture, nutrition, labelling and the needs of their target consumer.”
Conventional eggs aren’t standing still either. The AEB sees new opportunities in high-protein bakery and snacks, portable foods, prepared meals, sauces, custards and selected beverages.
“Protein beverages are particularly interesting, and a good example of why formulation matters,” said Serrano-Bahri. “Moving from whey to egg protein, for example, is not simply replacing one protein powder with another. Egg proteins respond differently to heat, pH, minerals, concentration and processing conditions, so products need to be designed around what egg protein does exceptionally well.”
The crisis exposed the danger of depending on an agricultural ingredient whose supply can be devastated by disease. More unexpectedly, it revealed how deeply that ingredient is built into the architecture of food. Manufacturers had four years, record prices and every commercial reason to reduce their reliance on eggs – yet many discovered that replacing them could create a bigger formulation problem than keeping them.
