GLP-1 consumer trends: Key takeaways
- GLP-1 users may buy less food overall, but trading up and greater spending on functional products can help protect grocery value
- Bakery and snack consumption may rebound after treatment, while some UK users are increasing their intake of grain-based and baked products
- Household spillover expands the GLP-1-influenced market beyond active users, while changing tastes make sensory appeal as important as protein and fibre
Food manufacturers already know that GLP-1 users eat smaller portions, prioritise protein and cut back on snacks and alcohol. Those findings have been reported so often that repeating them adds little to the industry’s understanding of what comes next.
The latest research takes the story a step further by testing the assumptions that have formed around those behaviours. New data from International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), PwC’s Strategy&, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and The Harris Poll UK suggests that eating less doesn’t always mean spending less, bakery isn’t necessarily pushed out of the basket and the commercial reach extends well beyond active users.
It also exposes gaps in the way the market is being measured. Current prescription numbers exclude millions of household members whose diets are changing alongside those of users. Consumer behaviour also shifts as people start, stop and restart treatment, making it difficult to categorise demand as either temporary or permanent.
This isn’t another account of how appetite-suppressing drugs are changing food consumption, but an analysis of where the latest evidence collides with the industry’s accepted wisdom – and why some manufacturers may be planning around the wrong GLP-1 consumer.
1. Assumption: GLP-1 will hollow out bakery
Bakery has repeatedly been cast as one of the biggest casualties of GLP-1 adoption. BCG’s research lends weight to that warning, with baked goods among the foods whose consumption declines during active treatment.
IFF’s UK findings, however, complicate the picture. Compared with non-GLP-1 consumers trying to manage their weight, users were more likely to increase their consumption of grain-based and baked products, as well as honey and natural syrups. Both groups were moving away from artificial sweeteners.
The result doesn’t let bakery off the hook, but it does challenge the idea of an industry-wide decline. The category is splitting between products that struggle to justify the space they occupy and those that still give consumers a reason to eat them.
A large, heavily sweetened pastry may be easier to reject when appetite is limited. A smaller wholegrain product offering fibre, seeds, texture and recognisable ingredients faces a different outlook. Breakfast could be particularly important because IFF found it remains a significant nutritional occasion for UK users.
The opportunity, therefore, isn’t to turn every loaf or breakfast bake into a specialist GLP-1 product. It’s to understand which carbohydrates still earn their place when consumers become more selective about every bite.
2. Assumption: Smaller appetites will destroy grocery value
Smaller appetites appear to present a simple commercial threat: less food consumed, less money spent. PwC’s Strategy& found the first part is true, but not necessarily the second.
Its survey of more than 2,300 UK adults found that almost 60% of GLP-1 users are buying less food. However, approximately 30% are trading up, partly offsetting the volume decline through more expensive products.
BCG identified a similar redistribution. Active users expect to spend 15% more each month on fruit and vegetables, 11% more on high-protein foods and substantially more on fibre-rich and wholegrain products. They’re also twice as likely to choose functional products over conventional premium alternatives.
The grocery basket is shrinking by volume, but not always by value. Products dependent on large volumes and frequent impulse purchases face pressure, while smaller formats offering better ingredients, stronger nutrition or a more distinctive sensory experience could hold or increase value.
Manufacturers need to establish whether their categories are losing consumption, revenue or both. The answer will influence everything from pack architecture and price points to production capacity and margin forecasts.
3. Assumption: Once users stop treatment, they return to normal
The active-user total conceals a market in constant churn. At any one time, approximately one-third of people who have taken GLP-1 medication have stopped.
Yet around 60% of those former users intend to restart, while more than one in 10 active users already cycle on and off treatment deliberately, according to BCG. Reaching a target weight and difficulty paying for medication are among the main reasons for stopping.
Food consumption can consequently move through several stages. Appetite, cravings and portion sizes change during treatment, begin shifting again after stopping and may be disrupted once more when the user restarts.
This means manufacturers cannot automatically return former users to the conventional consumer segment. Brands may need to anticipate repeated changes in portion preference, product tolerance and eating frequency rather than one permanent transition to a new diet.
Prescription growth alone won’t show how many consumers are moving into, out of or back through the same food categories.
4. Assumption: The damage to bakery, snacks and confectionery is permanent
The bleakest forecasts assume falling bakery, snack and confectionery consumption will become permanent. PwC found that more than 80% of former UK users retain at least some dietary changes made during treatment, but BCG’s product-level analysis shows that persistence doesn’t apply evenly across the basket.
Meat, fruit, vegetables and high-protein foods can remain elevated or continue growing after treatment. Protein drinks, meal replacements and some functional products tend to peak during use before moving back towards their previous levels.
Baked goods, salty snacks, confectionery and frozen meals are more likely to rebound after consumers stop treatment. BCG says cravings and old eating habits can start returning within one to three months, although the wider diet may not reset completely.
Manufacturers need to establish whether a decline is temporary before removing capacity, rationalising ranges or investing in reformulation. A short-term reduction in consumption demands a very different response from a lasting structural decline.
Writing off entire sectors as permanent losers could prove expensive. Within bakery and snacks, some products will decline, some will recover and others may gain value from consumers trading up while eating less often.
5. Assumption: GLP-1 will turn meals into a series of snacks
Smaller, more frequent meals have encouraged predictions that GLP-1s will accelerate snackification. IFF’s UK research points in another direction.
Although 65% of users are eating smaller meals more frequently, they still tend to obtain protein and other nutrients through traditional meals rather than relying heavily on protein bars or functional snacks. Breakfast remains an important nutritional occasion; dinner retains its role as an anchor meal; and morning snacks appear more relevant than grazing throughout the day.
This separates the UK market from the more established US pattern of eating on the move and replacing meals with snacks. It also suggests that simply shrinking an American-style functional snack may not translate successfully.
Bakery producers could instead examine compact formats that remain recognisably connected to breakfast or lunch, such as smaller wholegrain rolls, seeded breakfast products, protein-enriched muffins or portioned savoury bakes.
The UK opportunity may lie in redesigning established meals for reduced appetites, not attempting to replace them with a procession of functional snacks.
6. Assumption: Only GLP-1 users matter
Counting prescriptions captures only part of the market. BCG found that around 70% of users had also changed what other people in their household ate or drank.
Partners, children and housemates were reported to be eating more fruit and vegetables, choosing less fast food, reducing ‘junk food’ at home and accepting smaller portions at shared meals.
Non-users adopted between 30% and 50% of the behavioural changes seen in the person taking the medication. Once that household spillover is included, BCG estimates the market influenced by GLP-1s is approximately 50% larger than the active-user population.
In the US, that turns an estimated 16 million active users into approximately 24 million people whose consumption may be affected. The same principle has implications for UK market sizing as adoption grows.
The broader opportunity may therefore lie in mainstream products that suit a changing household – portionable packs, flexible serving sizes and nutrient-dense bakery and snacks – rather than ranges explicitly labelled for patients.
7. Assumption: Protein and fibre will solve the product problem
The food industry’s GLP-1 response has become predictable: add protein, increase fibre and shrink the portion. IFF’s UK findings suggest those changes may solve only half the problem.
Its research found that 70% of GLP-1 consumers had lost some of the joy of eating. Taste preferences had changed for 73%, while 66% reported some form of change in mood or personality.
The Harris Poll UK adds further context. Among current users, 38% reported reduced ‘food noise’, 37% experienced less emotional eating and 36% had fewer cravings. Those effects can support more controlled choices, but they may also weaken the impulses, habits and rewards on which many food categories depend.
This makes sensory design a commercial issue. A product can contain the right protein and fibre in an appropriate portion but still fail if its texture is too dense, its sweetness feels excessive or its flavour no longer cuts through.
A protein claim cannot rescue a product that has become a chore to eat. The bigger formulation challenge is creating enough flavour, aroma and textural interest to make food feel worthwhile when appetite – and the pleasure of eating – has fundamentally changed.
