The heatwave effect at a glance
- Repeated heatwaves are changing what consumers buy, boosting demand for chilled drinks, lighter meals and grab-and-go products while softening sales of hot bakery favourites
- Bakery and snack manufacturers are increasingly treating extreme heat as a recurring commercial factor, adapting product ranges, merchandising and retail formats accordingly
- The same trend is emerging across the UK, Europe, North America and Australia, suggesting weather is becoming an increasingly important influence on food retail performance
This summer has offered little respite from extreme heat and it’s made for one of this season’s defining business stories, influencing everything from what shoppers buy and how stores are stocked to staffing levels and, ultimately, the bottom line.
France and Spain are battling a fourth heatwave since June, with temperatures in southwest France forecast to climb from around 33°C to a peak of 42°C, and Spain’s weather agency AEMET expecting 40°C in at least six regions on Wednesday.
Wildfires that have already forced roughly 330,000 evacuations across the two countries remain only partially contained, with 93 firefighters injured battling the blaze near Bordeaux alone.
Britain, meanwhile, is in its third heatwave of 2026, a summer that has already produced more days above 30°C than the whole of 1976 and set records for May, June and July highs.
Retailers have long known that soaring temperatures dent appetite for hot pastries, sausage rolls and warm sandwiches, while driving shoppers towards salads, chilled drinks and ice cream. But what’s different this year is the sheer repetition of it.
With the UK on its third heatwave and France and Spain on their fourth, businesses can no longer treat a hot spell as a one-off blip to ride out. That frequency is what’s pushed the industry to rebuild ranges, store formats and marketing around heat as a recurring feature of the trading calendar, rather than reacting to each spike after the fact.
Greggs’ half-year results show what that structural response looks like in practice. The UK’s biggest bakery chain reported total sales of £1.1bn for the 26 weeks to 27 June, a 7.2% increase on the same period last year, while pre-tax profit climbed a fifth to £76m. A year earlier, the story was very different. Greggs issued a profit warning after ‘very high temperatures’ reduced footfall even as demand for cold drinks increased.
This year’s rebound suggests the business has adapted more effectively to prolonged hot weather by broadening its cold-food and drinks offer rather than relying on traditional bakery favourites.
Greggs believes it was better prepared for this year’s heatwaves. Chief executive Roisin Currie said the business had “learned some lessons” after last summer, noting that demand typically softens once temperatures exceed 30°C.
“We’ve been much more resilient this year than previously because we learned some lessons,” she says. She pointed to a new blueberry matcha iced latte and a salad range – including a prawn layered pasta salad and a chicken caesar – launched just before the heat arrived. “The timing of those was great and they have sold well.”
Customers, she added, also turned to fruit pots, yoghurts, wraps and picnic-friendly packs of sausage rolls, while still craving the occasional treat.
Julie Palmer, managing partner at financial and real estate advisory group BTG, argues that Greggs’ performance also reflects a broader strategy to diversify how and where it reaches consumers.
“Growth of its loyalty app and delivery capability, investment in store expansions, establishing new Bitesize and Express formats and rolling out partnerships with grocers shows the bakery giant leaves no stone unturned when it comes to capturing customers at every corner of the market,” she says.
Yet Palmer believes the real test is still to come. “After a summer of sport, beer gardens and heatwaves, Greggs will be banking on autumn and winter seeing demand for its hot pastries and convenient on-the-go products returning... If Greggs cannot deliver sales volume, however, could its substantial presence across towns and cities become an expensive Achilles heel as opposed to the gateway to capturing every corner of the market?”
Building a business for hotter summers
Greggs is far from alone. Across Europe and North America, retailers are redesigning ranges around the expectation that prolonged summer heat is becoming the norm rather than the exception.
Pret A Manger has scaled up iced lattes, cold brew and iced matcha to capture hot-weather commuters, while its existing salad and sandwich range has cushioned the drop in hot coffee sales.
Supermarket instore bakeries have seen footfall soften as shoppers switch to chilled aisles, but NIQ and NielsenIQ data shows retailers clawing that back by giving more shelf space to prepared salads, fresh dips and deli ‘picky bits’.
Costa Coffee has expanded its cold-drinks line-up with an Iced Oat Velvetino, a Cherry Vanilla Iced Whipped Latte and a Sweet Ube Iced Whipped Latte, alongside a broader iced matcha range, while newer ready-to-drink coffee brands such as Rodd’s and Arctic Coffee have used the heat to push further into supermarket shelves.
What the numbers say about shopper behaviour
NIQ found total till sales at UK supermarkets rose 4.6% year-on-year in the four weeks to 13 June, driven largely by the May heatwave, when sales jumped 6.3% over a fortnight. Prepared salad climbed 21% and fresh dips grew 20%, while frozen goods, led by ice cream up 34%, became the fastest-growing ‘super category’.
Mike Watkins, NIQ’s head of retailer and business insight, expects the pattern to repeat. “The second heatwave of the year will likely see another boost to sales into July, conveniently coinciding with the summer of sport,” though he warns “we still expect lower demand into August when the holiday season disrupts spending.”
UK research from IGD ShopperVista illustrates how dramatically shopping habits can change during periods of extreme heat. It found that 71% of shoppers altered their usual food choices, with 82% opting for lighter meals and 44% buying more salads and chilled sides. Hydration became a priority for 90%, while ice cream and lollies topped shopping lists, with 64% buying more than usual.
IGD analyst Annie McGoff says the scale of the shift demands a retail response. “When high temperatures coincide with major events, shoppers can shift quickly between planned missions, top-up shops and impulse purchases. Businesses that flex availability, merchandising and promotions around chilled, refreshing, convenient and at-home occasion-led products are best placed to respond.”
Payments platform Square recorded a 137% surge in UK iced coffee purchases during the May bank holiday heatwave compared with the previous weekend.
According to John O’Beirne, Square International’s chief executive, the increase reflected the speed at which hospitality businesses responded to soaring temperatures. “Few people read the market faster than a hospitality business owner, and the heatwave was a prime opportunity for them to stock up on chilled drinks and the supplies required for iced coffees, so that they can cater for the demand.”
A global pattern
The same forces are playing out well beyond Britain. More than 160 million Americans were placed under heat alerts during the Fourth of July period, while Circana estimates the US snacking market reached $231bn, up 3.2%, with more than half of consumers now eating three or more snacks each day. Convenience retailers are increasingly leaning on cold drinks and immediate-consumption occasions as temperatures climb.
Across Europe’s six largest markets, snack sales reached €186bn, up 5.5%, while foodservice operators continue investing in premium iced coffees, functional beverages and other cold refreshment formats.
Yet the continent’s repeated heatwaves are also challenging conventional wisdom. Research highlighted by Reuters suggests alcohol consumption rises with temperature only up to around 32°C, after which demand can soften as consumers prioritise hydration and seek cooler environments.
And Australia’s own pattern shows this is far from a northern hemisphere phenomenon. Temperatures reached 50°C in parts of South Australia during January, contributing to the country’s fourth-warmest January since records began in 1910. Even so, Circana estimates Australian snack sales grew 6.9% to A$30bn, underlining how retailers with flexible, seasonal ranges are continuing to grow despite increasingly extreme weather.
Different continents, different climates, same commercial lesson. As periods of extreme heat become more frequent, success will increasingly depend on anticipating what shoppers want to eat when temperatures soar, not simply what manufacturers have always been good at producing.
