Australia’s baking boom is masking a growing skills crisis, warns industry leader

Key takeaways:

• Australia’s baking industry is thriving on premium products and innovation, but a shortage of skilled workers is emerging as one of its biggest long-term challenges.
• Baking Association of Australia executive officer Tony Smith argues decades of prioritising university pathways over trades have weakened the pipeline of future bakers and bakery owners.
• While bakers continue to navigate new regulations and evolving consumer trends, industry leaders say attracting and retaining the next generation of tradespeople will be critical to the sector’s future success.

Australia’s baking industry should be enjoying a moment of confidence. Consumers are queuing around the block for premium croissants, gourmet cookies and indulgent scrolls. International partnerships are strengthening. Bakery owners are finding new ways to innovate and grow. Yet beneath the surface, an uncomfortable question is troubling the industry: where will the next generation of bakers come from?

It’s a concern shared by baking associations across the globe, but according to Baking Association of Australia (BAA) executive officer Tony Smith, the problem down under actually starts at the top.

While governments continue to announce skills initiatives and workforce programmes, Smith believes Australia has spent decades steering young people towards university while neglecting the trades that keep industries such as baking alive.

His criticism comes at a time when governments around the world are pouring money into skills initiatives and workforce development schemes. According to Smith, however, Australia’s problem isn’t a lack of programmes but a lack of direction.

“Everything’s been geared to university and it’s like a freight train – no one can pull it up,” he says. “The government keeps doing these little programmes, but someone has to give the schools direction.”

It’s an argument that resonates far beyond Australia’s bakery sector. Across Europe, North America and Asia, manufacturers are wrestling with ageing workforces, shrinking apprentice numbers and growing concerns over succession planning.

The workforce crisis starts in the classroom

Smith’s frustration centres on what he sees as a system that actively discourages vocational careers. He points to the disappearance of work-experience programmes, the decline of dedicated careers advisers and school funding models that can unintentionally penalise apprenticeships.

One example particularly rankles. Under Australia’s school-based apprenticeship system, students can split their time between school, technical college and the workplace. Yet Smith says schools lose funding when students spend time elsewhere, creating incentives that can discourage participation.

Even more concerning, he recounts cases where schools have shown little interest in helping students pursue baking careers. In one instance, two students from a prestigious Queensland school expressed strong interest in cake decorating and patisserie. The BAA was never allowed access to their contact details and communication abruptly stopped.

The consequences are becoming increasingly visible. Many long-established bakery owners are approaching retirement with no clear succession plan, while others struggle to find skilled workers willing to take over businesses built over decades.

Yet Smith also sees reasons for optimism. Across Australia, there are instances of younger bakers stepping into ownership positions, often supported by families willing to invest in local businesses. These success stories, he argues, offer a blueprint for the industry’s future. Rather than waiting for outside investors, retiring owners should consider passing businesses to the apprentices and young tradespeople already working alongside them.

“There’s a lot of those people around,” Smith says. “If they want to sell, they should talk to the younger ones working there.”

Premiumisation is thriving

Labour shortages may dominate industry conversations, but consumer demand remains remarkably resilient.

Australia is experiencing many of the same premiumisation trends seen across global bakery markets. Croissants have enjoyed a renaissance; gourmet doughnuts continue to attract strong demand; and cookies have become social media sensations. The latest craze, according to Smith, is premium scrolls.

“People are queuing up for them,” he says, noting some bakeries are charging around AU$12 for sweet and savoury varieties packed with premium fillings.

The willingness of consumers to pay premium prices mirrors developments elsewhere. Businesses such as Lune Croissanterie, Brooki Bakehouse and Butterboy have built devoted followings through social media, experiential retail and premium positioning. Consumers may be feeling cost-of-living pressures, but they remain willing to spend on products that deliver indulgence, novelty and perceived quality.

Growth opportunities are emerging at the same time as bakers face increasing scrutiny over ingredients, labelling and workplace safety. The country has recently implemented stricter allergen-labelling requirements, bringing it more closely into line with regulations already familiar to European and North American businesses.

Meanwhile, flour dust exposure is becoming a major compliance issue. New workplace rules are creating uncertainty for bakery operators, particularly smaller businesses concerned about the cost of ventilation upgrades and differing interpretations between state regulators.

Smith’s frustration, however, isn’t about the regulations themselves, but the complexity of implementation. Australia’s federal system means national rules are often interpreted and enforced differently across the country’s states and territories, creating confusion for businesses trying to comply. “We just want one answer,” he says. “When you’ve got six jurisdictions and they all interpret different ways, you’ve got no hope.”

It’s a dilemma that will sound all too familiar to food manufacturers operating in markets ranging from the US to the EU, where regional variations increasingly complicate compliance strategies.

Sourdough authenticity, global partnerships and the industry’s future

Interestingly, Australia hasn’t experienced the same level of political debate around artificial colours and ultra-processed foods (UPFs) that has dominated headlines elsewhere. Instead, Smith believes the next major battleground may be sourdough authenticity.

Questions are already being asked about what constitutes a genuine sourdough and whether stronger standards are needed to protect the category. Similar debates have played out in the UK and parts of Europe, where artisan bakers have pushed for clearer definitions and stronger enforcement.

For Smith, however, international collaboration offers one of the industry’s most valuable tools for navigating these challenges.

The Australian baking sector has become increasingly engaged with global networks, including partnerships with baker associations in New Zealand, Taiwan, the UK, Scotland, Canada and the US. Knowledge sharing around allergen regulations, workforce development and technical standards has become increasingly important as markets face similar pressures.

The upcoming Australian Baking Trade Show on the Gold Coast reflects that growing international outlook. Delegations from Taiwan and New Zealand will join Australian bakers for three days of competitions, exhibitions and industry networking. It also showcases the role the BAA plays in supporting the country’s baking sector. The association represents around 1,000 independent bakeries, franchise operators, manufacturers and suppliers, focusing primarily on the needs of small and medium-sized businesses.

Looking ahead, Smith doesn’t predict explosive growth or dramatic transformation. Instead, he sees an industry that will continue evolving through entrepreneurship, craftsmanship and local ownership.

What worries him is whether enough people will be encouraged to join it. And if he’s right, the future of Australian baking won’t be decided by the next food trend, regulatory reform or premium pastry launch. It will be decided by whether the country can convince more young people that baking is a career worth pursuing.

Otherwise, the industry’s biggest challenge won’t be finding customers: it’ll be finding bakers.