Key takeaways:
- Premiumisation is driving growth in the biscuit category, with higher-priced, bakery-style products delivering stronger margins even as volumes soften.
- Consumers are buying treats less often but spending more per purchase, reshaping biscuits from everyday staples into occasional, higher-value indulgences.
- Social media and instore bakery concepts are accelerating demand for visually appealing, premium cookies that command £6-£10 price points.
Biscuits have long been one of the safest bets in food - low cost, high volume, steady demand - but that model is starting to stretch in ways that are delivering far more value than the category was ever really known for. Euromonitor and other market trackers put the global biscuits and cookies market at more than $110bn today, with forecasts suggesting it could exceed $140bn by the end of the decade, growing at around 4%-5% a year. It’s not the fastest-moving part of snacks, but it rarely misses.
Set against the wider snacking landscape, the opportunity becomes harder to ignore. Euromonitor estimates global snack sales at close to $700bn, with premium products expected to outpace standard lines as consumers trade up. Biscuits sit neatly in the middle of that dynamic because they can stretch from everyday staple to something far more indulgent without really changing what they are.
That flexibility is now showing up in how people shop. Kantar’s 2024 Global Monitor survey, covering more than 36,000 consumers across 28 markets, points to a fairly consistent pattern: fewer treats, but better ones. In the UK, that’s already feeding through into pricing, with average unit prices for sweet biscuits up more than 15% between 2022 and 2024.
Indulgence hasn’t disappeared under pressure: it’s just become more selective. Euromonitor frames it as more intentional treating, while NielsenIQ data shows better-for-you snacks growing faster than traditional formats. People still want the reward, but they’re thinking a bit harder about what actually feels worth it.
1. The $10 biscuit is moving into the mainstream
What would have felt excessive not that long ago is starting to look fairly normal in the right setting.
Concepts such as New York City’s Levain Bakery helped establish the model with oversized, thick, indulgent formats that feel closer to dessert than snack, and operators like Crave Cookies have taken that approach further. In London, bakeries such as Crumbs & Doilies and Cutter & Squidge are comfortably pricing cookies in the £5-£8 range, while destination concepts like Gideon’s Bakehouse have built a following around oversized, high-impact formats.
The real change is in how the purchase is framed. These aren’t being compared with a packet of biscuits anymore. They sit closer to café treats or desserts, where similar prices don’t raise the same questions.
2. Premiumisation is driving where the value sits
Volumes still matter, but they’re no longer the whole story.
Across the UK and Europe, premium sweet biscuits are doing more of the work in value terms, even where overall volumes are under pressure. For manufacturers, that makes them a useful lever at a time when ingredient costs are still unpredictable.
You can see that thinking reflected in strategy. Ferrero has expanded its biscuit footprint following its €1.3bn acquisition of Fox’s and related assets, effectively using biscuits to extend its premium confectionery play. Lotus Bakeries continues to build on Biscoff’s global traction, while Fox’s Burton’s Companies is leaning more heavily into heritage and quality cues. Pepperidge Farm has been doing this for years and still holds its ground.
Retailers have picked up on it, too. Instore bakeries, once treated as a convenience, are now being used far more deliberately, not least because margins can exceed packaged goods by around 30%.
3. Social media is shaping both demand and pricing
Social media is doing more than generating awareness - it’s influencing what gets made and how it’s priced.
On platforms such as TikTok, bakery products have become highly visual content. Thick cross-sections, molten fillings, exaggerated textures - these are the details that travel. Creators like Eloise Head have helped push indulgent cookie formats into the mainstream, and when something takes off, the commercial impact can be immediate.
That visibility feeds directly into pricing. If a product looks distinctive enough, it’s easier to position it as something worth seeking out rather than something you just pick up. Euromonitor’s point about demand for ‘quick indulgence with a crafted feel’ fits neatly here, because ‘crafted’ is often judged visually first.
4. Consumers are trading up rather than stepping back
Economic pressure has changed behaviour, but it hasn’t removed indulgence.
Kantar data shows consumers are buying treats less often while spending more when they do. In the UK, around 40% of shoppers say they are treating themselves less frequently but opting for better-quality options.
In practice, that might mean skipping a few smaller purchases and going for something more substantial instead: a £6-£8 cookie rather than a cheaper snack alongside a coffee. The spend is similar, but the perception is different.
5. Health expectations are being built into indulgence
Even in a category built on indulgence, health hasn’t gone away.
NielsenIQ data shows better-for-you snacks are growing faster than standard alternatives, which is pushing biscuit manufacturers to adapt. Reduced sugar, gluten-free and higher-protein options are becoming more visible, including from brands such as Voortman Cookies and newer entrants focused on functional formats.
The difficulty is cost. Reformulation can push ingredient spend up by 10%-30%, which means those products need to sit at a higher price point to make sense commercially.
6. Scale remains an advantage, but not a complete solution
Large manufacturers have the reach to dominate distribution, but replicating bakery quality at scale is still a work in progress. Companies such as Mondelez International, Nestlé and The Hershey Company continue to expand through more indulgent and ‘bakery-style’ lines, including softer textures, filled formats and limited-edition launches.
They’re getting closer, but there’s still a noticeable difference in texture and perception compared with fresh bakery products, which leaves room for smaller players to compete on experience.
7. A familiar category with growing strategic importance
Biscuits may look simple, but they’re now sitting across several different pressures at once.
They operate across price tiers, from everyday staples to premium indulgences, and across markets where their role can vary significantly. That flexibility is useful, but it also makes pricing and positioning more complex.
At the same time, volatility in ingredients such as cocoa, sugar and wheat continues to shape cost structures, which means premiumisation is no longer just an opportunity. In many cases, it’s becoming a necessary part of protecting margins.
What’s emerging is a category that hasn’t changed much on the surface, but is behaving very differently underneath, with value increasingly tied to perception, experience and where a product sits on shelf.
