Key takeaways:
- Cocoa prices have fallen nearly 70% from their 2024 peak, but the market’s shift from deficit to surplus reflects both recovering supply and weakening demand.
- Reformulation, smaller pack sizes and tighter price points introduced during the spike are proving stickier than many manufacturers initially suggested.
- Despite lower futures, farmer income pressure, regulatory costs and hedging cycles mean chocolate prices aren’t automatically heading back down.
After cocoa surged above $12,000 per tonne in 2024 and then lost close to 70% of that value, it would be easy to frame the episode as boom and bust. But that misses what’s changed underneath. Lower futures don’t automatically translate into stability for farmers or cheaper chocolate on shelves.
When New York cocoa crossed $10,000 per tonne in March 2024, the move didn’t feel speculative. The fundamentals were already stretched, stocks were tightening and arrivals were uneven. By late May, ICCO data showed certified European inventories had fallen 47% since the start of the season (from 165,690 tonnes to 86,740 tonnes). It wasn’t a theoretical squeeze – warehouses were visibly thinner.
Prices continued climbing through the year and briefly moved beyond $12,000 in December. At that point, the tone of procurement conversations has shifted. The questions were more basic: do we have coverage and what happens if this goes further?
ICCO’s May 2024 balance sheet reflected the imbalance. Production for 2023/24 was projected at 4.461 million tonnes against grindings of 4.855 million tonnes, leaving a 439,000-tonne gap. Stocks were reduced and the stocks-to-grindings ratio fell to 27.4%. In a market that relies heavily on Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, that’s tight by any standard.
Manufacturers responded quickly. Prices moved up in several regions. Pack sizes edged down. Some formulations were adjusted – more inclusions, marginally less cocoa – to keep products within psychological price bands. At the time, these moves were framed as temporary responses to extreme input costs. Two seasons on, some of them look more structural.
Production recovers, demand retreats
By the end of 2025, the picture look different. ICCO data showed that after a significant deficit in 2023/24, the following season edged back into surplus. Output recovered to 4.69 million tonnes, up 7.4% year-on-year. Grindings, however, declined compared with the previous year before, pointing to something more than just improved supply.
That shift matters: A market can correct because harvests improve or because demand fades. In cocoa, both happened at once.
Analysts now expect stocks to rebuild over the coming seasons. US-based commodities brokerage StoneX has forecast further surpluses into 2025/26 and 2026/27; Rabobank has taken a similar view, suggesting inventories are likely to replenish rather than tighten again in the near term. As that narrative took hold and buying appetite cooled, futures slid back towards $3,000 per tonne in early 2026 – roughly 70% below the highs of 2024.
Yet the structure underneath hasn’t changed. Africa still accounts for around 70% of global production. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana dominate exports. If either stumble, the impact is quickly felt across global supply chains.
And both have been operating under pressure. The crop challenges of 2023-2024 weren’t a single drought event. Periods of heavy rainfall increased black pod disease, followed by drier spells that added further stress on trees. Ghana continues to battle cocoa swollen shoot disease, with surveys indicating roughly a third of cocoa land is affected. Replanting infected trees takes time, money and patience – all of which are in limited supply for many smallholders.
The subsequent fall in prices created a different difficulty. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana both operate regulated farmgate systems and pre-sell large portions of their crop. When global prices fell below guaranteed domestic prices, traders were reluctant to buy at a loss. Reports suggested Côte d’Ivoire could face sizeable volumes of unsold cocoa under those conditions, while Ghana’s licensed buying companies encountered financing pressure.
For economies where cocoa represents a significant share of export earnings – roughly 40% in Côte d’Ivoire and around 15% in Ghana – volatility feeds quickly into wider stability. Nearly two million farmers depend on cocoa income. High prices were disruptive; but lower prices haven’t delivered calm.
Grindings and volumes tell the fuller story
Grindings data underline the demand side of the story. The European Cocoa Association reported a notable decline in Q4 2025 grindings, with full-year volumes also down compared with 2024. Asia recorded a year-on-year fall in Q4. North America was broadly flat. Given Europe’s weight in global cocoa consumption, that slowdown carried influence.
Company results reflect the same adjustment. Barry Callebaut reported Global Cocoa sales volumes down 22% in the three months to 30 November 2025, citing “negative market demand and a prioritisation of volume toward higher-return segments within cocoa”. In other words, processors weren’t changing tonnes for their own sake.
Retail figures show a similar split between value and volume. NIQ data indicate US chocolate sales value rose 6.7% in 2025, largely driven by pricing, while unit volumes declined. Chris Costagli, a food thought leader at NIQ, observed that higher prices have ‘turned off consumers’, forcing manufacturers to adjust.
Some of the changes made during the spike now look embedded. Pack sizes adjusted; formulations incorporated more inclusions; cocoa butter substitution re-entered the discussion. Even if cocoa remains cheaper than its peak, product architecture doesn’t automatically snap back. Barry Callebaut’s investment in cocoa-free alternatives and AI-supported recipe development suggests the industry isn’t treating the volatility as a one-off shock. It’s building optionality into future pipelines.
Mondelez chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put addressed price sensitivity during a February investor call, stating: “We have learned that certain price points are very important, and so we have adjusted already to put our products at the right price point.” He noted that in parts of Europe, sharper price rises led to more pronounced volume declines and subsequent recalibration. In North America, where price rises and volume losses were more moderate, adjustments have been more measured.
Lower futures, higher shelves
For consumers, the disconnect remains visible. Futures may have fallen sharply, but shelf prices haven’t followed at the same speed.
Datasembly data show US chocolate prices up 14% in early 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. German chocolate prices rose 18.9% in 2025 as well. Hedging cycles explain part of the lag; so does margin repair. After two years of intense cost pressure, companies aren’t rushing to give back pricing if consumers are still absorbing it.
Smaller pack formats also change the maths. A steady shelf price doesn’t necessarily mean a steady price per 100g.
Trade policy added another layer in 2025, with tariff adjustments affecting cocoa flows in several markets. Analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that most tariff costs are borne domestically, which helps explain why delivered prices can remain sticky even as commodity markets ease.
Overlaying all of this are regulatory demands. The EU’s deforestation regulation will add further compliance demands from December 2026 for large operators. Traceability and due diligence requirements won’t be costless. The Cocoa Barometer has highlighted the scale of historic forest loss in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, reinforcing why cocoa remains central to sustainability debates.
The past two seasons haven’t simply delivered a dramatic rise and fall in price. They’ve changed how cocoa is bought, how chocolate is formulated and how risk is managed. Futures may have retreated, but the operating environment hasn’t reverted to what it was before 2024.
