Key takeaways:
- Fibre is moving from worthy to desirable, with social media trends and consumption gaps creating headroom for better-for-you bakery that still delivers flavour.
- Breakfast is emerging as a quiet growth engine, with shoppers selectively trading up for premium croissants and versatile formats that justify everyday indulgence.
- Convenience, clean label and flavour authority are converging, forcing bakery brands to balance health credibility with emotional satisfaction.
Bakery isn’t shrinking. It’s resetting. After years of inflation pressure, HFSS disruption and shifting health narratives, the category’s finding its footing again – not through one dominant claim, but through a cluster of behavioural shifts that feel more grounded.
Health hasn’t gone away; indulgence certainly hasn’t. What’s changed is how tightly the two now sit together. Walk the supermarket aisle and you will see it: bagels talking about fibre and protein; croissants framed as affordable luxury; savoury biscuits repositioned as impulse snacks; pastry formats promising minimal effort but maximum impact.
The mood heading into 2026 is less about chasing the next buzzword and more about refining the fundamentals – flavour, format and function – so they work harder.
Fibre moves into the mainstream
Fibre isn’t new but what’s changed is the way it’s being talked about.
Stephen Jones, UK sales director at Grupo Bimbo UK, commenting on behalf of the New York Bakery brand, says “fibremaxxing – driven by TikTok and younger audiences – is rapidly gaining traction.” He adds that consumers are “looking to boost gut health and fibre intake in fun, shareable ways.”
He also points to a sizeable consumption gap. “With 77% of consumers actively trying to eat more protein and 90% lacking fibre, there’s huge room to grow better-for-you products.”
That creates space for growth but only if the products remain desirable. Jones also points to flavour as a parallel driver. “Authentic New York tastes are in demand,” he says, predicting that “the Everything Bagel flavour – already gaining traction in bakery NPD – will become a hero in 2026.”
Flavour sits at the centre of St Pierre Group’s outlook. “Flavour is set to define 2026,” says commercial director Rachel Wells. “Consumers want more excitement from their everyday bakery, and bold, globally inspired flavours are increasingly being delivered through the carrier itself.”
That shift puts more focus on the base product (the bun, croissant or bagel) rather than relying solely on fillings or toppings.
BakeAway’s head of NPD, Elliot Cantrell, also sees health and indulgence operating in parallel. “Sweet dough is fuelled by emotional comfort, nostalgia and social media driven trends,” he says. At the same time, “consumers aren’t looking to give up enjoyment, they’re looking for better options that align with a balanced lifestyle.”
Taken together, the signals suggest that function alone won’t carry 2026. Health cues may open the door, but flavour and familiarity still close the sale.
Breakfast becomes the quiet growth engine
If one occasion’s carrying more weight than most, it’s breakfast. “Breakfast remains the biggest bakery occasion in the UK, bought by 99.6% of households,” says Wells. For St Pierre, croissants are “the stand-out growth driver – up 17% year on year”. The segment’s now worth over £140m and still growing at double-digit rates. That’s not defensive buying. That’s shoppers choosing to trade up, selectively.
“Economic pressure means shoppers are more selective, but they’re still prepared to pay more for quality and experience,” he adds.
IGD analysis suggests consumers are increasingly trading up for ‘smaller-scale occasions’ when bigger-ticket treats feel out of reach. Bakery fits that sweet spot perfectly. A better croissant or upgraded bun delivers a sense of lift without the price tag of eating out.
Jones frames it slightly differently – around versatility. “The cost-of-living crisis has reinforced consumer demand for products that deliver value and versatility – affordable staples that can flex across multiple meal occasions.”
If a bagel works for breakfast, lunch and a quick evening fix, its price feels justified. That flexibility becomes part of the value story. At the same time, health expectations haven’t softened. “Health and wellbeing remain at the forefront, with shoppers demanding better-for-you options that don’t compromise on taste,” Jones says. That’s why ranges built around fibre, protein and lighter calorie options sit at the centre of brand strategy rather than the edge.
Younger consumers are pushing this dual demand hardest. Wells describes them as “adventurous, globally influenced and open to trying new flavours.” Older shoppers still prioritise familiarity and consistency.
That’s an important part of a layering strategy. Core SKUs deliver reassurance. Limited editions and flavour twists drive excitement.
Convenience becomes emotional
Snacking’s shifting too, but in less predictable ways. Ryvita’s Snack Its range is targeting more modern, on-the-go missions – “from top-up shops to desk grazing”. The brand reports it’s recruiting younger, flavour-seeking households who’d typically over-index in crisps and bagged snacks.
That recruitment matters. Early results suggest Snack Its is adding new snacking moments rather than cannibalising existing lines. For retailers watching space and margin closely, incremental growth is everything.
Flavour’s again central. Salt & Vinegar and Sour Cream & Chive are leading performance, showing that seasoning-led formats can revitalise categories that risk feeling static.
Convenience, meanwhile, is evolving beyond pack size. Cantrell notes that “readymade pancakes… pastries and cookie dough formats allow consumers to create something delicious and high quality with minimal fuss.” And that “that feeling of ease is a big part of why they’re growing.”
Ease isn’t just practical; it’s emotional. When time and budgets are tight, low-effort indulgence feels earned rather than excessive.
Sustainability expectations are running in parallel. “Clean label expectations are only going to keep increasing,” Cantrell says. Shoppers want clarity and they want brands to prove their commitments. BakeAway’s investment in local sourcing and 100% green electricity across its sites is framed as operational alignment.
Technology will sharpen this further. Cantrell believes AI-powered tools will increasingly shape flavour development, demand planning and waste reduction. Consumers may never see that machinery, but they’ll feel the benefits in availability, freshness and relevance.
A steadier kind of growth
What stands out heading into 2026 isn’t volatility. It’s recalibration.
Bakery isn’t chasing a single silver bullet. It’s tightening its offer across multiple fronts: fibre that feels relevant rather than worthy; flavour that leads; breakfast that justifies small trade-ups; snacking formats that feel modern; operations that quietly align with sustainability expectations.
As Wells puts it, the common thread is “premiumisation, flavour and experience – whether it’s a weekday breakfast or a weekend occasion.”
And for a category built on everyday staples, that kind of disciplined evolution may be exactly what 2026 demands.
