Africa’s wheat import dependence leaves bread prices exposed to global shocks

Key takeaways:

• Africa’s heavy reliance on imported wheat is leaving bread prices highly exposed to global geopolitical, currency and logistics shocks.
• Falling global wheat prices haven’t translated into cheaper bread, as high energy, transport and foreign exchange costs continue to weigh on bakers.
• Without investment in local wheat production and infrastructure, Africa’s bakery sector will remain vulnerable as demand rises with population growth.

Africa remains heavily dependent on wheat imports, with the US, Russia, Ukraine and Canada among its key source markets. While calls to expand local production are growing louder, imported wheat continues to dominate supply chains across the continent.

Wheat is a cornerstone ingredient for Africa’s bakery and confectionery sectors, with importers and millers playing a central role in supplying flour to bakeries and food manufacturers. From South Africa, Zimbabwe and Kenya to Nigeria, Cameroon and Morocco, many countries remain structurally reliant on foreign wheat supplies.

That dependence has become increasingly exposed. Ongoing global economic upheaval, tariff disputes and geopolitical instability have pushed up bread prices in several African markets, injecting volatility into a staple food for millions of consumers.

While the World Bank notes that global wheat prices eased in 2025 – falling from peaks of roughly $430-$450 per tonne in 2022-23 to nearer $240-$270 per tonne – those declines didn’t translate into lower bread or bakery prices across much of Africa. In many markets, the retail price of a standard white bread loaf now ranges from the equivalent of $0.80 to more than $2.00, depending on currency strength, subsidy regimes and transport costs.

Analysts point to persistent bottlenecks, including constrained access to US dollar funding, elevated port and logistics charges, inland transport challenges and rising utility expenses. Electricity costs remain a particular pressure point: industrial power tariffs in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are often two to three times higher than global averages, with frequent outages forcing millers and bakeries to rely on costly diesel backup.

There are also concerns that heavily subsidized wheat production in exporting countries continues to undermine local African producers. Imported wheat – often supported through production, energy or logistics subsidies in origin markets – can undercut locally grown wheat by $40-$80 per tonne, making domestic supply structurally uncompetitive even before transport and storage costs are factored in.

“Due to subsidies in industrialized countries where South Africa imports wheat, low international wheat prices continue to exert pressure on the potential growth of the local industry, which has been unable to compete at these low wheat prices,” Thabile Nkunjana, an African agricultural economist, told this site.

Recent data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that wheat exports from the US to Africa have climbed to 1.71 million tonnes, with Russia, Canada and other exporters also remaining significant suppliers to countries including Kenya and Zimbabwe. Nigeria leads the continent in US wheat imports, while South Africa continues to bring in large volumes amid rising demand from Ivory Coast, Algeria and Egypt.

Logistics, forex pressures and the push for local supply

Population growth is compounding the challenge. Africa’s population is projected to exceed 1.6 billion by 2035, sharply increasing demand for affordable staples such as bread and baked goods. IndexBox Market Intelligence estimates that the continent will require up to 84 million tonnes of wheat by 2035, reinforcing concerns that import dependence will deepen unless local production accelerates.

With imports expected to continue dominating supply, agricultural economists argue that governments must rethink how to boost domestic output while addressing infrastructure gaps that inflate transport and logistics costs for millers and bakeries.

“The cost of transport from ports and coastal provinces toward bakeries is more expensive,” said Dawie Maree, an agricultural specialist with South African lender FNB. “Improvements in efficiencies to reduce costs are very important to enhance supply.”

In North Africa, procurement strategies are already shifting. Morocco, traditionally reliant on US wheat, has outlined plans to source more than 3 million tonnes from France under new tender arrangements, widening its supplier base in an effort to reduce exposure to geopolitical, currency and logistics disruptions tied to transatlantic shipments.

Across the continent, currency volatility remains a persistent risk. Sustained weakness in local currencies often makes it difficult for governments and importers to secure sufficient foreign exchange for wheat purchases. When millers are forced to source dollars at market rates, bread prices tend to rise, prompting government intervention.

That dynamic has played out repeatedly in countries such as Mozambique and Zimbabwe, where forex shortages frequently trigger state involvement. Mozambique recently centralized wheat imports through the Instituto de Cereais de Moçambique (ICM), officially to curb tax evasion and under-invoicing, though industry sources say access to import funding remains strained.

Grain South Africa warned in late 2025 that “prolonged global price suppression at the bottom of the international wheat cycle, rising production costs – particularly energy, fertilizer, logistics and mechanization – and continued inflows of subsidized wheat imports competing directly with local production” are weighing heavily on domestic growers.

Still, there is cautious optimism. A promising 2025-26 agricultural season across parts of southern Africa has renewed hopes that local wheat production can rebound and play a more meaningful role in supply.

“Supply can be enhanced through increased local wheat production,” Maree said. “South Africa currently only produces about 50% of our local consumption – the rest must be imported.”

The bottom line for Africa’s bakery sector, however, isn’t just about sourcing wheat, but about building resilience. Without sustained investment in local production, infrastructure and energy reliability, bakers will remain exposed to global shocks far beyond their control – with bread prices continuing to reflect geopolitics as much as grain.