Key takeaways:
- Panettone now makes up 41% of UK festive cake sales, while stollen’s share has climbed 12 percentage points year on year, as traditional Christmas cake declines.
- Shoppers spent around £4.1 billion on seasonal food and drink in 2024 – up 8% despite flat volumes – reflecting demand for lighter, premium bakes.
- With 26% of retail sales and over half of growth now happening online, bakers need modernized recipes and packaging that appeal to digital-first consumers.
If you’d said a decade ago that Britain’s Christmas cake would be on the endangered list, few would’ve believed you. Yet here we are. A week after The Great British Bake Off finale, the real showdown is happening on supermarket shelves.
The grand old fruitcake – rich, brandied, wrapped in nostalgia – is sliding out of favor. Circana data shows sales of traditional festive bakes have fallen for three straight years. Panettone now holds 41% of all UK seasonal cake sales and stollen is up 12 percentage points year on year. It’s clear the continent’s winning Christmas.
Truth be told, it’s not hard to see why. The old cake belonged to a slower age of soaking and stirring. Panettone and stollen are ready when you are – easy to gift, nice to look at, lighter on the stomach. They fit the pace of now.
“This year’s GBBO series might be over, but the real ‘cake-off’ is just getting started,” said Ananda Roy, senior VP & industry advisor at Circana. “Panettone and stollen are no longer just holiday guests, they’re becoming part of the family. Lighter, shareable and a little more glamorous, they’re winning over British shoppers and showing that even the most traditional festive foods can get a fresh twist.”
Lighter lives, lighter bakes
Oddly enough, it’s lifestyle, not loyalty, that’s changing the nation’s plate. Fewer big families. Less time. Smaller tables. The marzipan-armored cake feels like something your nan loved – and maybe still does – but it’s a tough sell to Gen Z.
Circana’s consumer data shows shoppers under forty are twice as likely to choose bakery products labeled ‘shareable’, ‘modern’ or ‘giftable’. They’re not abandoning heritage; they’re editing it. Panettone is brunch-friendly, travel-proof and let’s be honest, Instagram gold. Stollen brings the comfort note without the commitment.
And both work brilliantly online. They ship well, photograph beautifully and last long enough to double as décor. The cling-filmed fruitcake never stood a chance.
Following the dough
Circana’s Innovation Pacesetters 2025 report calls festive bakery one of grocery’s few real bright spots. Britons spent roughly £4.1 billion on seasonal food and drink last Christmas – up 8% even as volumes stayed flat. Shoppers are buying fewer things, but nicer ones.
Retailers have noticed. Premium supermarkets have logged double-digit growth in panettone for three consecutive seasons. Discounters, too, are moving mountains of stollen under own-label banners. The market’s split cleanly – luxury on one side, value indulgence on the other – with the heavy old cake stuck in the middle.
Formats are shifting. Mini panettoni, sliced stollen, pistachio twists – lighter, faster, made for sharing. Circana notes that ‘snackable’ bakery grew 14% in volume last year. Even packaging has become part of the product: tins, ribbons and foil wraps now do half the selling.
And with 26% of UK retail sales – and more than half of growth – happening online, the photogenic bakes have a built-in advantage. Panettone’s golden dome practically markets itself.
From fruitcake to futureproof
For Britain’s bakers, this isn’t the end of tradition; it’s a nudge to evolve. The question isn’t ‘Can Christmas cake survive?’ but ‘What could it become?’
Some are already experimenting: softer crumbs, espresso-soaked layers, thinner icing, fruit soaked in tea instead of brandy. Others are chasing the continental trend – stollen donuts, panettone puddings, even hybrid desserts that mash up British comfort with Italian flair.
Packaging is another equalizer. A simple ribbon, a reusable tin, even a hand-stamped tag can lift a product from everyday to premium. And because festive discovery now happens as much on Instagram as instore, bakers need to think in pictures. A sugar-dusted loaf in warm light can travel further online than any shop window ever will.
As Roy notes, “Modernized heritage recipes and premium gifting formats are redefining how consumers celebrate, not just in the UK but across Europe.” For bakers, that’s less a prediction than a countdown.
A global festive phenomenom
EU: Italian panettone and pandoro exports are edging toward €1 billion, up almost 10% year on year, with Britain among the top buyers.
US: Imports of Italian sweetbreads rose 30% in 2024, as panettone crossed into brunch and gifting categories.
Australia: Continental Christmas bakes are finding new shelf space as multicultural shoppers shape demand.
Asia: Japan and South Korea are turning panettone into a café-season staple through limited-edition collaborations.
Britain hasn’t ditched Christmas cake out of disrespect, just disinterest. People still want ritual, just without the weight. Panettone and stollen deliver that balance: global flavor, local comfort, zero effort.For the old fruitcake to rise again, it’ll need to reinvent itself – fast.
