Key takeaways:
- Social media, indulgence, nostalgia and inclusivity are the four forces reshaping bakery consumption in North America.
- Labor-saving mixes, ready-to-use buttercreams and flexible ingredient swaps show how Dawn is helping bakers respond to cost and staffing pressures.
- Limited time offers and smart merchandising can deliver significant sales lift, making agility a decisive factor in today’s tougher bakery market.
The Michigan-based supplier staged one of the busiest booths on the Las Vegas floor, turning it into a working lab for how bakeries can turn consumer buzz into business.
Queues snaked for the 5,000 donuts handed out daily. Chefs piped buttercream onto lemon cakes, while marketers walked operators through fresh consumer insights. Theatrics aside, there was strategy at work. Each donut, cake and demo was tied to a wider narrative: indulgence, nostalgia and inclusivity can still drive growth, even in an era of labor shortages and volatile ingredient costs.
For more than a century, Dawn has been known for its bases and mixes. But that wasn’t the story it wanted to tell at IBIE. The company leaned hard into its role as a translator of consumer insights into workable bakery solutions. Alongside its product launches, it unveiled the 2025 North America Bakery Trends, built from surveys of 2,500 consumers and hundreds of instore visits across bakeries, groceries and foodservice outlets.
The topline? Consumers are shopping bakery differently. Social platforms have become a growth engine. Indulgence has morphed into an everyday luxury. Nostalgia remains powerful, but people also want ‘newstalgia’ – fresh takes on the classics. And inclusivity is no longer optional. Dawn brought each of these forces to life through products bakers could taste, touch and reimagine for their own operations.
“Bakery products are an affordable way for consumers to treat themselves,” said Chef Melissa Trimmer, senior director of Culinary. “They may not buy the latest Louis Vuitton bag, but they can buy a fabulous cake – and feel just as good about it.”
Four forces reshaping bakery
Sweet Connections speaks to how social media has rewired discovery. More than 60% of North American consumers now say they’ve bought a bakery item because of something they saw online – a leap since 2022. Among Millennials and Gen Z, 58% say they’re likely to order food directly from a platform in future.
That’s a huge opportunity, but also a pressure cooker. A viral format can fill cases overnight. Miss the moment and it’s gone. At IBIE, Dawn’s Loaded Croissants demonstrated how an idea designed for Instagram could also be built to scale. The goal isn’t just eye candy. It’s eye candy you can reproduce reliably.
Elevated Indulgence highlights another shift. Seven in 10 consumers now agree bakeries are the affordable way to enjoy bold, multi-sensory offerings. No need to wait for birthdays. People want a ‘special moment’ on a random Tuesday. Limited time offers (LTOs) turn that craving into action. According to Dawn’s research, LTOs can lift incremental purchases by as much as 36%.
The company leaned into that dynamic at IBIE with a monochromatic pitch-black Victorian cake and its Decadent Honeymooner donuts: examples of how drama and practicality can co-exist. “Consumers want to feel they’re getting something extraordinary,” Chef Trimmer said. “Our role is to help operators deliver that at scale.”
Simple Pleasures taps into nostalgia. Four in five consumers love baked goods that remind them of childhood. At the same time, 70% enjoy a fresh twist on tradition – what Dawn calls ‘newstalgia’. That’s a balancing act, but it’s also an open door. Snack cakes, mini donuts, sheet cakes all are back, but with inventive inclusions, flavors or formats. In Las Vegas, the Perfect Glazed Donut reminded operators that sometimes the simplest product, executed perfectly, can still win the day.
Finally, Empowering Choices underscores inclusivity. More than half of North American consumers prefer bakeries that cater to diverse dietary needs, and nearly two-thirds of Millennials and Gen Z say brand values influence their choices. This goes beyond gluten-free or plant-based. It’s also about sourcing, transparency and sustainability. Dawn illustrated the point with a Brownie Flight, showing how easy variety can feel like a personal choice for the customer without creating complexity in the kitchen.
Speed as currency
Spotting trends is only half the job. The real grind is execution.
“The first thing is always flavor,” explained R&D leader Tim Tomczyk. “Once that’s right, we map the critical parameters so we can carry them consistently from the benchtop through to the production line. By identifying measurable attributes early, we can compress timelines and move from idea to execution much faster.”
That need for speed explains why so many of Dawn’s launches had a labor-saving angle. All of its cake donut mixes are now ‘just add water’. The Nutro Donut line even includes ready-to-finish frozen donuts that staff can roll in cinnamon sugar and tray up in minutes.
Cakes got the same treatment. Buttercreams – notorious time sinks for decorators – are now available ready-to-use, flavored and pre-colored. Seasonal variants like lemon, strawberry and pumpkin mean decorators can spend more time on design and less time mixing. “We know decorators often spend more time blending colors than actually decorating,” said Chef Trimmer. “These mixes let them focus on the high-value part of their craft.”
Ingredient volatility: cocoa shock and workarounds
Ingredient volatility hovered over IBIE like a cloud. Cocoa prices in particular were a talking point. Dawn’s answer? Flexibility. The company expanded its chocolate portfolio with high-quality compound chips positioned as a pragmatic swap for couverture in certain applications.
“Compounds used to have a terrible reputation – waxy textures, odd flavors,” Chef Trimmer admitted. “But the compounds we tested against couverture were so good that unless you had a trained palate, most consumers couldn’t tell the difference. That’s a powerful lever when you’re fighting inflation.”
As such, the message wasn’t ‘downgrade’ but ‘deploy smartly’. Premium couverture still has a role in showcase creations. But in a simple cookie, a well-crafted compound chip may do the job while protecting margins.
Scarcity and storytelling
Scarcity also sells. Seasonal flavors, bundling and day-parting were all discussed as ways to create urgency. Allison Hornev, senior director of Category Marketing, pointed to the impact of LTOs. “They not only bring people through the door – they can lift baskets significantly,” she said.
The booth illustrated her point with pumpkin cakes, churro donuts and mochi donuts made with imported Royal Steensma ingredients. Each had its own story – whether rooted in seasonality, cultural mashups or texture play. The bigger idea was that merchandising isn’t an afterthought. It’s part of product design.
Adapting to a faster, tougher market
Today’s consumers want more – more variety, more values, more shareable moments – while operators are juggling rising costs and shrinking workforces. Dawn’s pitch was that those forces don’t have to be in conflict. With the right tools, bakers can shorten development cycles, protect margins and still deliver products that resonate.
That doesn’t mean chasing every viral trend. It means building the agility to jump when it makes sense and the discipline to ignore the rest.
“Consumers don’t wait for holidays to celebrate anymore,” Chef Trimmer said. “Friday night can be special. And if bakeries can meet that need with the right products, the opportunity is enormous.”
IBIE is always about spectacle. But behind Dawn’s donuts and demos was a serious point: growth in bakery will come to those who connect the dots between consumer insight, operational efficiency and merchandising muscle. The market may be tougher, but the path forward is adapt quickly or risk being left behind.
