For generations, breakfast has been synonymous with a bowl of cereal swimming in milk. But in 2025, that ritual is undergoing a seismic shift. Faced with rising living costs, changing lifestyles and a surge in on-the-go consumption, British consumers are rethinking the most important meal of the day and it’s bad news for cereal box stalwarts.
New data from Circana reveals a notable decline in traditional breakfast formats. Unit sales of boxed cereals have dipped by more than 2% year-on-year, with even porridge - a once-steady staple - down by 1.5%. That decline coincides with a larger trend: a growing number of consumers are either skipping breakfast entirely or choosing faster, cheaper alternatives.
It’s not just changing tastes that are to blame. Affordability and convenience are now top of mind for many households, particularly amid economic uncertainty. The legacy of this shift? A factory producing Cheerios, Shreddies and private-label cereals is facing closure, with 314 jobs at risk.
“This growing divergence between traditional and emerging breakfast formats signals a deeper change in how people start their day,” says Alex Lawrence, senior strategic insight director at Circana. “Brands must now respond not just to economic pressure, but to an evolving breakfast culture that prioritises speed, affordability and on-the-go convenience over the classic cereal bowl.”
A global shift
The UK isn’t alone: traditional breakfast cereals are losing their grip globally.
In the US, cereal consumption has fallen dramatically, with annual sales dropping from 2.1 million tonnes in 2008 to 1.6 million tonnes in 2023. Once a kitchen staple, the morning bowl is increasingly being replaced by smoothies, overnight oats and high-protein snack bars, especially among millennials and Gen Z.
Worldwide, the breakfast cereal market is projected to grow - from $65.25 billion in 2024 to $95.32 billion by 2033 - but this growth is being driven not by cornflakes, but by healthier, functional formats: think low sugar, high fibre, whole grain or plant-based options.
According to analysts, the demand for on-the-go, better-for-you foods is reshaping the sector, placing traditional boxed cereals under increasing pressure.
Even in fast-developing markets like Asia-Pacific, where rising urbanisation has boosted cereal uptake, the preference is tilting toward ready-to-eat and functional products that reflect a growing focus on wellness and convenience.
In short, the classic cereal bowl is under siege not just in Britain, but in breakfast cultures around the world.
Rise of grab-and-go
Instead of sitting down to a bowl of cereal, more Brits are grabbing toaster pastries on the way out the door. According to Circana, toaster pastries have seen unit sales spike by over 13% and volume rise by more than 10%, fuelled by a nearly 7% drop in average price. It’s a potent combination: indulgence, portability and price.
These aren’t just trends: they’re signals of a long-term cultural shift. Circana’s ‘Emerging Trends: Daypart Disruptions’ report highlights that 39% of consumers now eat breakfast before 8 am, a five-point rise since 2020. With routines compressing and morning schedules tightening, the need for fast, fuss-free options has never been more acute.
Coffee shops outpaced by QSRs and grocers
This transformation is playing out visibly in the out-of-home (OOH) market as well. Kantar’s latest foodservice data shows that breakfast is now the fastest-growing meal occasion, up 13.7% year-on-year. But coffee shops - long the go-to for morning commuters - are losing ground.
Instead, Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) and multiple grocers are stepping in to meet consumer demand for speed and value. While coffee remains part of 42.6% of breakfast occasions, coffee shops have seen a 3.6% drop in usage. This is because more consumers are picking up their caffeine fix alongside low-cost, pre-packed meals, often via apps or loyalty schemes.
Kantar data also reveals the 35-54 demographic is still the most engaged with breakfast OOH, but it’s Gen Z that’s showing the fastest growth, with a 23.7% year-
on-year increase. Brands that cater to this group’s desire for digital convenience and affordability will be best placed to capture the future breakfast market.
Snacking is redefining breakfast
Good news: breakfast isn’t disappearing - it’s just being redefined.
Circana reports that 37% of consumers now prefer quick bites over full meals, up from 36% last year and 29% in 2010. Snacks like nuts, crackers and pastries are increasingly replacing traditional sit-down meals across all dayparts - and breakfast is no exception.
These changes are accelerated by new work patterns. With hybrid models becoming the norm, foodservice morning and lunch visits by white-collar workers are up 8% year-on-year, reflecting a partial return to pre-pandemic habits. For brands, this opens a window to serve ‘commuter breakfasts’ once again - but the format has changed. Now it’s less about sit-down cafés and more about ready-to-eat, heat-and-eat and pre-bundled items.
Cooked breakfasts hold their ground
Yet not every breakfast trend is about speed. According to Mintel, cooked breakfasts are gaining popularity at home in the UK, rising from 19% in 2022 to 25% in 2024. This has contributed to a 10% jump in egg sales. Behind the rise is a growing awareness of blood sugar management, with nearly half of adults agreeing that a savoury breakfast is a good way to avoid spikes in blood sugar levels.
A similar picture is emerging in the US, where egg consumption is climbing despite supply constraints and soaring prices. In 2024, per capita egg consumption reached 284.4 eggs, up 1.1% from the previous year, underscoring Americans’ sustained appetite for protein-rich breakfasts. However, a widespread outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has devastated the egg-laying hen population, leading to the culling of over 158 million birds since 2022 and triggering egg shortages. As a result, egg prices hit $4.95 per dozen in January 2025, marking a 56% increase year-on-year.
This has placed pressure on both consumers and foodservice operators, with many of the latter implementing surcharges to navigate the crisis. Nevertheless, demand remains resilient, fuelled by health concerns, changing meal routines and the enduring appeal of the hot, home-cooked breakfast.
This resurgence of home-cooked options - especially among health-conscious consumers - shows that the traditional breakfast isn’t entirely dead. It’s evolving alongside new health narratives and dietary routines like intermittent fasting, which 55% of 16-34-year-olds report following.
Skipping breakfast: A rising threat
Another factor reshaping the breakfast landscape is the growing incidence of meal-skipping, especially among younger generations. Mintel data shows that 38% of regular breakfast eaters now skip the meal at least occasionally, up from 33% in 2018. Among 16-34s, the number is as high as 55%, suggesting a cultural reframing of breakfast as optional.
This shift presents a long-term threat to established breakfast food categories - from cereals to toast spreads - and may force brands to reposition breakfast as part of broader snacking or meal replacement strategies.
Convenience remains king
Across every age group and demographic, the unifying theme is practicality. Kantar data shows that 44.6% of OOH breakfast choices are driven by convenience. Whether it’s a bacon roll from a convenience store, a protein bar or a pastry with coffee, people are choosing breakfasts that slot seamlessly into busy routines.
And with low consumer confidence still shaping purchasing behaviour, value for money is paramount. The brands finding success are those offering bundled deals, premiumised grab-and-go options and digital ordering solutions that eliminate friction.
For the breakfast industry, this moment represents both challenge and opportunity. Established cereal brands are facing an identity crisis but for those willing to adapt, there’s room to grow.
To capture the emerging breakfast culture, brands must:
- Invest in convenience-first formats: think toaster pastries, overnight oats, heat-and-eat burritos.
- Cater to hybrid lifestyles, leveraging delivery apps and store partnerships to offer breakfast at home, at work or en route.
- Target Gen Z with smart pricing, portability and health-conscious marketing.
- Champion savoury and high-protein options as interest in blood sugar control rises.
- Reclaim skipped breakfasts with snacks and functional products that blur the lines between meals.
“This growing divergence between traditional and emerging breakfast formats signals a deeper change in how people start their day,” says Alex Lawrence, senior strategic insight director at Circana. “Brands must now respond not just to economic pressure, but to an evolving breakfast culture that prioritises speed, affordability, and on-the-go convenience over the classic cereal bowl.”
Adds David Portalatin, senior VP and food industry advisor for Circana, “Our research showcases how disruptions in traditional mealtimes are creating opportunities for businesses to rethink their strategies. By addressing these shifts, companies can stay relevant and connected to their audiences while tapping into new moments for growth.”
The cereal aisle isn’t extinct but it’s evolving fast. If brands fail to keep up, they risk being left with nothing but empty bowls to show for it.
Lunch and dinner are evolving, too
Lunch: The £23bn giant, according to Kantar, still dominates out-of-home (OOH) spending, but growth has slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, trailing behind breakfast. While staples like soups, salads and sandwiches remain favourites, health-driven choices are declining as consumers prioritise enjoyment (90.4%) and practicality (40.3%). Grocers and QSRs are gaining ground with affordable meal deals, while bakery and sandwich shops lose share.
Dinner: Growing faster at 5.7% year-on-year, fuelled by a surge in social dining occasions (+126.7%). QSRs lead the way, but brands have room to innovate with healthier, shareable and experience-led options. Health-driven evening meals are up 31.6%, pointing to fresh opportunities to blend indulgence with wellbeing.
