Global alcohol-free volumes set to grow 7% as category booms

The low and no alcohol category is expected to grow 4% volume CAGR through 2028: which compares very favorably to subdued growth in alcohol (where volumes can be expected to rise 1%), according to the latest figures from IWSR.

But delve into the sub-sectors and the opportunities are even greater: no-alcohol is expected to grow at a 7% CAGR from 2024-2028. And this segment is expected to deliver incremental growth of $4bn+ by 2028.*

What do growth rates look like across the category, who are the consumers driving the category forward, and where do the biggest opportunities lie?

Trends: Moderation and beyond

Alcohol consumption is declining. In fact, per capita consumption in liters of pure alcohol is at 80% of its level of 2000, notes IWSR analysis.

And that means more consumers are turning to low or no alcohol products. And they’re incorporating that into their regular drinking schedules with trends such as zebra-striping.

But the market is evolving. As more and more products come to market, other drivers aside from moderation are shaping the category.

“Moderation continues to be a key driver to the reduction in alcohol and also a key driver of no and low consumption,” Susie Goldspink, head of low and no alcohol at IWSR, told us.

“In a recent survey we conducted, 68% of no and low buyers are moderating alcohol, and moderation continues to be the lead motivator in choosing no and no products.

“But while moderation is important, it’s not all about moderation. As no and low becomes more established and categories are becoming more available and gaining participation with consumers, we’re seeing a rise in other drivers outside of moderation, seeing taste becoming more important, availability, merchandising, branding, lots of other factors playing an increasing role as the category becomes more and more developed.”

Learn more!

This month, our FREE-TO-ATTEND webinar will put the spotlight on this intriguing market (the event takes place on March 26, but don’t worry if you can’t attend live - just register to listen on-demand).

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With extensive experience in market research and a deep understanding of consumer behavior, Goldspink will present the latest stats about the category: then help us analyze market trends, consumer preferences and industry innovations

She’ll then be joined by our global panel of:

Brian Rosen, founder, InvestBev:

Brian has dedicated his career to the beverage industry, having been CEO of his own $100m independent liquor retailer and consultant to Anheuser-Busch. A Power Ranking Top 100 Global Beverage Leader, Brian is now firmly focused on the low and no alcohol category in the US – and he’ll tell us why.

Mark Wong, founder, Impossibrew:

Mark partnered with scientists to create a revolutionary patent-pending tech combining ancient wisdom with modern science, launching functional alcohol-free beer Impossibrew in the UK. After appearing on Dragon’s Den [Shark Tank] in 2022, Mark turned the Dragon’s ‘too early’ rejection into motivation. A successful Crowdcube campaign that year surpassed its initial target of $400,000 in under 10 minutes from launch, ultimately raising more than £750,000. Wong will tell us what entrepreneurs are watching in the alcohol-free category.

Dan Harwood, Eisberg:

Alcohol-free wine makes an interesting case study for alcohol-free. It might face technical challenges, a highly discerning audience and the structural category declines of the overall wine industry - and yet the sector boasts impressive growth rates.

Having racked up more than 15 years experience in the wine trade before joining Schloss Wachenheim to take charge of the UK’s top selling alcohol-free wine, Harwood also bridges the alcohol and alcohol-free segments.

* IWSR’s analysis is taken from the 10 most important global markets: Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, South Africa, UK, US.