During the recent airing of The 2025 Show, Andrew Wardlaw, chief ideas officer for MMR Research, highlighted the powerful effect of GLP-1 medications on food consumption. “GLP-1 medications are shutting down desire,” he stated, citing scientific research that shows these drugs impact eating habits in two ways: physically, by lowering blood sugar, delaying gastric emptying, and sometimes inducing nausea; and neurologically, by disrupting the brain’s reward system.
A study by Cornell University and Numerator found that households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced grocery spending by approximately 5.5% within six months of starting the medication. The most significant declines were seen in purchases of sweet and salty snacks, baked goods, and sugary beverages. Higher-income households showed an even sharper decline, with an 8.6% reduction in grocery spending.
Further analysis by PwC revealed that GLP-1 users spent about 11% less across most food categories, with the steepest drops in sweet and salty snacks and baked goods. Additionally, 47% of users reported eating smaller portions, while 56% indicated making healthier food choices.
With approximately 14% of US adults having taken GLP-1 drugs to manage weight or conditions like diabetes, the implications for the bakery & snacks sectors are profound.
Rethinking product strategy
Producers are acknowledging the need to adapt to shifting consumer behaviours.
“It may impact the snacking industry financially, but I think the bigger effect will be on the types of products we see and the claims on packaging,” said Lori Herman, insights leader for Mondelez North America, during The 2025 Show. She pointed to an opportunity for ‘GLP-1 friendly’ protein-rich snacks. “People on these medications need to consume more protein, which could benefit brands that already offer protein-dense products. We’ll likely see a surge in protein-rich snack options as a result.”
Amanda Oren, VP of Industry Strategy for Grocery in North America for Relex Solutions, echoed these sentiments in her analysis about the current egg crisis in the US. “Almost 10% of adult Americans are taking some form of GLP-1, and it’s significantly impacting which categories are selling. Sales of very salty snacks and sugary treats are down, while protein-rich foods like eggs and fresh produce are seeing a notable uptick.”
Flowers Foods CEO Ryals McMullian, however, remains cautiously optimistic. He referenced research indicating that while GLP-1 users initially buy less and shift toward nutrient-dense perimeter-store items, over time, their spending on centre store items rebounds.
“I don’t think anyone fully understands the long-term implications yet,” said McMullian.
“What matters is positioning our portfolio for success in any environment.”
Flowers Foods is already shifting its offerings in response to changing consumer habits. As its fourth-quarter earnings revealed a decline in sales of traditional white and wheat bread, the company has expanded into premium and health-focused categories, such as Dave’s Killer Bread and better-for-you snack brand Simple Mills.
Other producers, like Conagra Brands – brand owner of Slim Jim meat snacks – are considering changes to portion sizes to align with shifting consumption patterns driven by GLP-1 use.
Using curiosity to save the sector
With traditional snack consumption declining, experts suggest manufacturers can sustain consumer engagement by stimulating curiosity to boost impulse-driven behaviour.
MMR Research’s Wardlaw stressed the importance of innovation in flavours, packaging formats, and extreme sensory experiences, particularly those that can go viral. Research indicates a 23% increase in online conversations about new and novel food experiences over the past year.
“We’re seeing a surge in interest for products that create excitement – whether it’s a FOMO-driven launch that captivates TikTok creators or layered sensory experiences that align with personal growth and self-expression,” he said.
Beyond curiosity, research by MMR founder Prof David Thomson suggests that consumer attachment to brands often transcends taste. Emotional connections – linked to identity, social belonging, and aspiration – play a crucial role in brand loyalty.
“People choose brands that make them feel adventurous, socially connected, or discerning,” Wardlaw explained. “If snack brands shift their focus toward delivering superior emotional experiences, they can mitigate the risks posed by GLP-1. The industry can still create irresistible products – just through a different kind of reward system.”
Mondelez’s Herman also noted an emerging experimental consumer mindset. “People are experimenting more than ever. You go to Costco, and shoppers are buying large quantities of products they’ve never tried before.”
The rise of ‘food as medicine’
Another key avenue for snack producers is aligning with the ‘food as medicine’ movement. Consumers are increasingly seeking functional foods that offer health benefits beyond basic nutrition, and this market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3%, reaching $36.6 billion by 2034. This trend aligns with the needs of GLP-1 users, who prioritise nutrient-dense snacks that support their health goals.
However, consumer attitudes toward GLP-1 drugs remain divided. According to FMCG Gurus, while 58% of consumers believe weight loss drugs and injections offer an effective solution, 40% hold negative perceptions – particularly concerning potential impacts on physical and mental well-being.
“In an era of economic, political, and social uncertainty, maintaining a healthy lifestyle can be challenging,” said FMCG Gurus content analyst Vicky Painter. “GLP-1 drugs provide a convenient solution, but concerns remain. Of those sceptical, 63% worry about the long-term health effects.”
Despite the mixed sentiments, GLP-1 medications are becoming a staple in the weight-loss market, making it crucial for brands to understand shifting consumer behaviours.
“There’s an opportunity for manufacturers to educate consumers by providing scientific clarity amid misinformation,” Painter noted. “Additionally, brands can innovate with fortified, portion-controlled products that are low in calories but high in vitamins and nutritional value.”
The rise of GLP-1 medications is undoubtedly reshaping the snacking industry. However, by focusing on protein-rich and nutrient-dense offerings, creating novel and sensory-driven experiences, and aligning with the ‘food as medicine’ movement, producers can navigate these changes while staying competitive in an evolving market.
Study:
Hristakeva, Sylvia and Liaukonyte, Jura and Feler, Leo, The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Purchases (December 27, 2024). Cornell SC Johnson College of Business Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5073929 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5073929
