Driving factors behind a healthy meat market

Related tags United states North america

The North American meat market remains as buoyant as ever, despite
animal health scares that have dominated the news for the past few
months. Diet and a lack of public hysteria towards outbreaks of BSE
and Avian flu have been identified as major contributing factors,
writes Anthony Fletcher.

In the US alone, an estimated 59 million adults are currently on the popular low-carbohydrate, high-fat Atkins diet, according to figures from the Valen Group. This has had a remarkable impact on meat intake.

"The Atkins diet has had a huge effect on meat demand in North America,"​ Jim Long, meat analyst and CEO of genetics company Genesus told FoodProductionDaily.com​. "Meat is a good source of protein, and this has been identified as a good thing. And in North America, meat protein is also relatively cheap compared to the rest of the world."

As a result, there has been no decrease in consumption. "Avian flu has not affected sales,"​ said Long. "Chicken prices in the US are higher than ever before. In July 2003 - after the BSE outbreak - beef consumption in Canada was 60 per cent higher per capita than the year before."​ And last January, the USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter was 2.096 million a week. This exceeded last year's levels by 120,000, representing the second largest January weekly slaughter ever, January 1999 being the largest.

Long believes that the popularity of meat is also a rational thing. There are 45 million cattle, in North America, and two animals were caught with BSE," he says "I think we should give people more credit - people clearly have confidence in the food system. It is certainly not the case that people are fearful of meat."

The buoyancy of the North American meat market is also surprising given the fact that corn and soybean meal prices have risen dramatically. This has had an inevitable knock-on effect on meat costs, but there has been no discernible reduction in consumption.

The situation is markedly different in Europe. Whereas Americans appear happy to accept government reassurances of food safety, consumers in Europe are far more sceptical. Health scares have hit meat consumption harder, according to the Central Statistics Office​.

For example, pig slaughterings decreased by 4.1 per cent or 10,000 tonnes last year compared to the previous year, while poultry meat imports decreased by 5.1 per cent to 37,000 tonnes.

Long questions the rationale behind European consumer concerns. "I was discussing the issue of food safety in Barcelona a year ago, and realised there how much things are relative,"​ he said. "At the conference, we were talking about health-related issues to GM foods and antibiotics in food. These health issues are of much greater concern in the US.

"Now, in the US, smoking makes you a social pariah. But at this conference in Barcelona, I could hardly see the back of the room for smoke. Where is the rationale in that?"

Whatever the rationality behind European scepticism surrounding food safety, it is a fact that the continent has not taken to low-carb diets with quite the same enthusiasm as North Americans. A survey published in the summer suggested that around 3 million people have tried the Atkins diet in Britain, compared to the 59 million Americans currently on a low-carb regime.

It remains to be seen whether a dramatic increase in high-protein dieting would have the same effect on meat consumption in Europe as has in the US.

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