US outlines global wheat predictions
very healthy according to the US Department of Agriculture. But
world wheat use is expected to exceed production.
The 2003/04 outlook for wheat production in the United States is very healthy according to the US Department of Agriculture. Total production is predicted to increase 31 per cent from 2002/03 to 2,113 million bushels.
In addition, winter wheat production is set to be 37 per cent above what it was a year earlier because of higher seedings, reduced abandonment and higher yields.
The larger total wheat crop is partially offset by reduced beginning stocks, but supplies are still up around 8 per cent from 2002/03.
Projected exports of 950 million bushels are 75 million above 2002/03 levels because smaller exportable supplies are expected in most of the minor exporters, especially Russia and Ukraine.
US ending stocks are projected up 63 million bushels from a year earlier, but, at 511 million bushels, will remain relatively low.
However, according to the Department of Agriculture findings, world wheat use in 2003/04 is expected to exceed production for the fourth consecutive year, dropping world wheat ending stocks to the lowest level in 15 years.
And world wheat production is expected to grow less than 1 per cent in 2003/04, despite fairly high prices in many markets during the previous year.
In contrast to US wheat production predictions, foreign wheat production is projected down almost 9 million tons to 512 million. This is largely because increased prospects in Australia, Canada, and Argentina are more than offset by reductions expected for the former Soviet Union, China, and several other countries.
Reflecting the production changes, exports from Russia and Ukraine are expected to drop sharply, more than offsetting increases for Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the United States.
For more information visit the USDA website.
